{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a40248fb-64cd-4ee5-9805-ebd6b6675630", "symbol": "ACB", "name": "Aurora Cannabis Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.671, "architecture_energy": 45.062, "architecture_maturity": 84.256, "architecture_confidence": 94.002, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.33, "rotation_up": 24.6, "upward_expansion": 6.33, "deceleration": 55.81, "rotation_down": 51.29, "downward_expansion": 79.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.806, 2.814727, 3.01581, 3.146903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.99, "trend_reference": 3.358667, "distance_from_trend": -0.109766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.734314, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.368441, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.515407, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.140805, "excess_performance": -0.328258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143489, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.368441, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.355154, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014284, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140805, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.7981, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7500079, "relative_activity": 1.396393, "balance": 0.7981, "dry_up": 1.150439, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098315, "annualized_volatility": 0.355689, "from_high_reference": -0.551388, "from_low_reference": 0.167969 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.358667, "fair_value_reference": 4.734314, "structural_low": 2.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.023913, "positive_rate": 0.302326, "directional_follow_through": 0.674419, "median_excess_return": -0.042804, "regime_survival": 0.860465, "best_return": 0.526196, "worst_return": -0.430605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.165217, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.148581, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.502381, "worst_return": -0.537705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.265327, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.319538, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.397667, "worst_return": -0.683857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.831662, "energy": 76.76794, "activity_lines": [ 2.82, 3.014182, 3.192429, 3.332323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.63, "volume": 5649323, "typical_volume": 4855063.25, "trend": 3.512333, "fair_value": 4.783429, "relative_strength": -43.139065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.961305, "energy": 77.952524, "activity_lines": [ 2.74, 2.919273, 3.127857, 3.270387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.67, "volume": 5535265, "typical_volume": 4949336.5, "trend": 3.451667, "fair_value": 4.766442, "relative_strength": -40.534104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.810225, "energy": 79.449532, "activity_lines": [ 2.700667, 2.845818, 3.072857, 3.216043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.79, "volume": 6031547, "typical_volume": 5132387.25, "trend": 3.4, "fair_value": 4.749256, "relative_strength": -37.456388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.971899, "energy": 69.379841, "activity_lines": [ 2.718667, 2.806, 3.033286, 3.173355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.99, "volume": 7500079, "typical_volume": 5371038.25, "trend": 3.358667, "fair_value": 4.734314, "relative_strength": -35.515407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.670609, "energy": 45.061917, "activity_lines": [ 2.806, 2.814727, 3.01581, 3.146903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }