{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a40415a9-0deb-4cca-bc4f-090856a22dd1", "symbol": "PRDO", "name": "Perdoceo Education Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.78, "architecture_energy": 30.676, "architecture_maturity": 4.756, "architecture_confidence": 59.289, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.14, "rotation_up": 28.71, "upward_expansion": 20.46, "deceleration": 38.82, "rotation_down": 49.8, "downward_expansion": 50.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.44, 32.862909, 33.309959, 33.590202 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 33.85, "trend_reference": 33.533181, "distance_from_trend": 0.009448, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.648585, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.880576, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077174, "excess_performance": -0.11028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009448, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040528, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180877, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024568, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077174, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.769826, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3665150, "relative_activity": 1.120682, "balance": 0.769826, "dry_up": 1.306391, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08544, "annualized_volatility": 0.387133, "from_high_reference": -0.116766, "from_low_reference": 0.28833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.533181, "fair_value_reference": 25.648585, "structural_low": 28.96, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.03381, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.040111, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.399655, "worst_return": -0.042834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005449, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.029244, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.375202, "worst_return": -0.145937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.221181, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.254171, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.434883, "worst_return": -0.004942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.162512, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.936749, "worst_return": -0.014827, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02313, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105976, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.227668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061501, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125464, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025498, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032546, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.13039, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04918, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153757, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064131, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.044385, "volume": 2000449, "typical_volume": 1601948.75, "trend": 12.578334, "fair_value": 11.436018, "relative_strength": 5.543953, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": 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3271045.25, "trend": 33.338898, "fair_value": 25.308473, "relative_strength": -12.946341, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.189374, "energy": 6.118512, "activity_lines": [ 33.541333, 33.534641, 33.924538, 33.858134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.36, "volume": 4483469, "typical_volume": 3343057.05, "trend": 33.367489, "fair_value": 25.424119, "relative_strength": -15.00725, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.065674, "energy": 26.07539, "activity_lines": [ 32.517333, 32.956751, 33.544448, 33.665947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.81, "volume": 3968747, "typical_volume": 3374949.0, "trend": 33.466546, "fair_value": 25.532072, "relative_strength": -11.2197, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.470534, "energy": 35.040316, "activity_lines": [ 32.088, 32.706052, 33.320995, 33.565463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.85, "volume": 3665150, "typical_volume": 3270462.55, "trend": 33.533181, "fair_value": 25.648585, "relative_strength": -9.880576, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.780457, "energy": 30.675592, "activity_lines": [ 32.44, 32.862909, 33.309959, 33.590202 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }