{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a405b3e1-4e54-4f3f-a5e4-b2a009c38a89", "symbol": "600100", "name": "Tsinghua Tongfang Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.25, "architecture_energy": 40.163, "architecture_maturity": 65.249, "architecture_confidence": 62.738, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.78, "rotation_up": 25.64, "upward_expansion": 17.58, "deceleration": 66.46, "rotation_down": 40.5, "downward_expansion": 65.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.937333, 6.886491, 7.257933, 7.593009 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.09, "trend_reference": 8.087978, "distance_from_trend": -0.12339, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.271406, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024948, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.488491, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.240086, "excess_performance": -0.196882, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12339, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067103, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024948, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201541, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09989, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.240086, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.44246, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133096648, "relative_activity": 0.791567, "balance": 0.44246, "dry_up": 0.985845, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076824, "annualized_volatility": 0.351313, "from_high_reference": -0.30964, "from_low_reference": 0.106084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.087978, "fair_value_reference": 7.271406, "structural_low": 6.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.009287, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.000187, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.286299, "worst_return": -0.235185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004577, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.015644, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.540041, "worst_return": -0.20684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009901, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.055761, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.205797, "worst_return": -0.223423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.11, "volume": 154046257, "typical_volume": 177168444.15, "trend": 8.148978, "fair_value": 7.273009, "relative_strength": -10.020366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.43504, "energy": 48.051898, "activity_lines": [ 6.845333, 6.873482, 7.307882, 7.66133 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.09, "volume": 133096648, "typical_volume": 168143184.65, "trend": 8.087978, "fair_value": 7.271406, "relative_strength": -12.488491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.250328, "energy": 40.162542, "activity_lines": [ 6.937333, 6.886491, 7.257933, 7.593009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }