{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a40674aa-23df-410b-837a-a5c9ada48a9e", "symbol": "S2EA34", "name": "Sea Limited", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.573, "architecture_energy": 37.901, "architecture_maturity": 23.903, "architecture_confidence": 54.03, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.37, "rotation_up": 59.0, "upward_expansion": 51.26, "deceleration": 39.17, "rotation_down": 22.3, "downward_expansion": 11.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.893333, 21.286545, 19.930761, 19.582602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.059999, "trend_reference": 20.005666, "distance_from_trend": 0.152673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.486987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073208, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.430791, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.029005, "excess_performance": 0.086053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.152673, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123263, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073208, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.257724, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174308, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.358419, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029005, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.072779, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45285, "relative_activity": 0.674165, "balance": 3.072779, "dry_up": 1.01418, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092234, "annualized_volatility": 0.484356, "from_high_reference": -0.475432, "from_low_reference": 0.43676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.005666, "fair_value_reference": 21.486987, "structural_low": 16.049999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.177739, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.207933, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.210702, "worst_return": 0.144776, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.451446, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.469748, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.658863, "worst_return": 0.24403, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.437807, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.368057, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.03233, "worst_return": -0.156716, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136539, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132076, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097974, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.234251, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024773, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047327, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001345, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.360327, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062244, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093409, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.7, "volume": 614063, "typical_volume": 174534.8, "trend": 13.592, "fair_value": 30.372258, "relative_strength": -42.561852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": 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14.73226, "energy": 20.70914, "activity_lines": [ 19.660666, 18.873818, 18.296523, 19.174924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.379999, "volume": 172768, "typical_volume": 81500.45, "trend": 20.876666, "fair_value": 21.23391, "relative_strength": -23.681897, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.167472, "energy": 51.397582, "activity_lines": [ 21.086666, 19.800909, 18.766285, 19.328365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.09, "volume": 67660, "typical_volume": 80811.25, "trend": 20.681, "fair_value": 21.294231, "relative_strength": -28.241328, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.595022, "energy": 51.484537, "activity_lines": [ 21.423333, 20.190545, 19.019857, 19.342129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.299999, "volume": 79011, "typical_volume": 68817.85, "trend": 20.424666, "fair_value": 21.347115, "relative_strength": -29.909348, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.718456, "energy": 49.419379, "activity_lines": [ 21.254666, 20.361818, 19.20138, 19.317548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.66, "volume": 80542, "typical_volume": 67662.75, "trend": 20.187, "fair_value": 21.411602, "relative_strength": -25.723514, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.176462, "energy": 46.558778, "activity_lines": [ 21.436, 20.73509, 19.507666, 19.397247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.059999, "volume": 45285, "typical_volume": 67172.0, "trend": 20.005666, "fair_value": 21.486987, "relative_strength": -17.430791, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.573315, "energy": 37.900882, "activity_lines": [ 21.893333, 21.286545, 19.930761, 19.582602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }