{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4071e69-1f5c-4317-959f-515089d5828f", "symbol": "FINCABLES", "name": "Finolex Cables Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.402, "architecture_energy": 17.207, "architecture_maturity": 58.337, "architecture_confidence": 73.764, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.84, "rotation_up": 16.85, "upward_expansion": 45.34, "deceleration": 87.25, "rotation_down": 38.71, "downward_expansion": 28.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1010.736678, 1039.387281, 1044.267153, 1008.472376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1024.650024, "trend_reference": 949.586676, "distance_from_trend": 0.079048, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1019.844153, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.314957, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.328644, "excess_performance": 0.372353, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079048, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113965, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130983, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.16315, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.328644, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.664956, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1344726, "relative_activity": 0.789682, "balance": 0.664956, "dry_up": 0.64104, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081367, "annualized_volatility": 0.501829, "from_high_reference": -0.135171, "from_low_reference": 0.462115 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 949.586676, "fair_value_reference": 1019.844153, "structural_low": 765.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.0402, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.032159, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.282618, "worst_return": -0.19954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.141067, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.034646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.516196, "worst_return": -0.209604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05693, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.094126, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.5827, "worst_return": -0.334872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 3e-06, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.051101, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.920166, "worst_return": -0.429028, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070664, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050777, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19554, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.165413, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075743, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", 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19.055821, "energy": 19.402159, "activity_lines": [ 1013.106669, 1047.072734, 1042.52239, 1003.083342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1024.650024, "volume": 1344726, "typical_volume": 1702869.95, "trend": 949.586676, "fair_value": 1019.844153, "relative_strength": 16.314957, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.402042, "energy": 17.207342, "activity_lines": [ 1010.736678, 1039.387281, 1044.267153, 1008.472376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }