{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a40cb5af-b030-4bf2-a4bc-03be2b4338c1", "symbol": "CSAN3", "name": "Cosan S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.045, "architecture_energy": 40.031, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.974, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.68, "rotation_up": 27.25, "upward_expansion": 22.42, "deceleration": 46.56, "rotation_down": 35.43, "downward_expansion": 58.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.852, 3.812909, 4.005048, 4.347699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.67, "trend_reference": 4.800333, "distance_from_trend": -0.23547, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.041099, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.634502, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.37082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.363951, "excess_performance": -0.306903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.23547, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121622, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.634502, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.343708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046476, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363951, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.23806, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122252600, "relative_activity": 1.123327, "balance": 0.23806, "dry_up": 0.786748, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107105, "annualized_volatility": 0.464754, "from_high_reference": -0.542964, "from_low_reference": 0.112121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.800333, "fair_value_reference": 10.041099, "structural_low": 3.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.015719, "positive_rate": 0.390244, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.027977, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.355839, "worst_return": -0.246032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.054425, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.14794, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.215728, "worst_return": -0.329752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.08675, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.190335, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.071731, "worst_return": -0.418182, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 10.231436, "relative_strength": -34.298895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.547383, "energy": 41.209109, "activity_lines": [ 3.859333, 3.774727, 4.111857, 4.476774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.07, "volume": 73250700, "typical_volume": 112983195.0, "trend": 4.850667, "fair_value": 10.135475, "relative_strength": -30.345306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.962661, "energy": 32.508521, "activity_lines": [ 3.932667, 3.828182, 4.074286, 4.423871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.67, "volume": 122252600, "typical_volume": 108830815.0, "trend": 4.800333, "fair_value": 10.041099, "relative_strength": -34.37082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.045255, "energy": 40.031306, "activity_lines": [ 3.852, 3.812909, 4.005048, 4.347699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }