{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a40dc3e6-e2c2-4c51-a2be-af47753c44d5", "symbol": "002027", "name": "Focus Media Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.928, "architecture_energy": 26.567, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.183, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.11, "rotation_up": 28.27, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 24.1, "downward_expansion": 58.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.213333, 5.061673, 5.277937, 5.606261 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.14, "trend_reference": 6.099416, "distance_from_trend": -0.157296, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.373004, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.193473, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.042247, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.286111, "excess_performance": -0.293511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157296, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114349, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.193473, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.270422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03034, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.286111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.226887, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1112714179, "relative_activity": 1.755288, "balance": 1.226887, "dry_up": 1.514423, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077069, "annualized_volatility": 0.31749, "from_high_reference": -0.40137, "from_low_reference": 0.125665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.099416, "fair_value_reference": 6.373004, "structural_low": 4.566191, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.002377, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000295, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.207957, "worst_return": -0.179963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.097643, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.039018, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.299611, "worst_return": -0.227805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.075484, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.039662, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.148992, "worst_return": -0.034049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 815073226, "typical_volume": 581700426.8, "trend": 6.225749, "fair_value": 6.386765, "relative_strength": -26.718184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.710617, "energy": 60.788658, "activity_lines": [ 4.918439, 4.943763, 5.333627, 5.712035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.62, "volume": 979392420, "typical_volume": 604290129.75, "trend": 6.173749, "fair_value": 6.381053, "relative_strength": -16.875799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.686976, "energy": 36.515641, "activity_lines": [ 5.180692, 5.047354, 5.325663, 5.672954 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.14, "volume": 1112714179, "typical_volume": 633920989.2, "trend": 6.099416, "fair_value": 6.373004, "relative_strength": -27.042247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.927806, "energy": 26.566929, "activity_lines": [ 5.213333, 5.061673, 5.277937, 5.606261 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }