{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a411c6b6-f457-47e8-8454-8d835cc1fc3b", "symbol": "ALT", "name": "Altimmune Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.817, "architecture_energy": 22.508, "architecture_maturity": 66.097, "architecture_confidence": 57.625, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.21, "rotation_up": 26.04, "upward_expansion": 15.51, "deceleration": 61.56, "rotation_down": 37.64, "downward_expansion": 63.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.924, 2.909455, 2.913048, 3.07157 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.08, "trend_reference": 3.436, "distance_from_trend": -0.103609, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.510288, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.441046, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.25673, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.367556, "excess_performance": -0.55501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103609, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131007, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.441046, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004621, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.282567, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115309, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.367556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.904238, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24457651, "relative_activity": 1.233311, "balance": 1.904238, "dry_up": 1.113135, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107285, "annualized_volatility": 0.585903, "from_high_reference": -0.521739, "from_low_reference": 0.203125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.436, "fair_value_reference": 5.510288, "structural_low": 2.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.045945, "positive_rate": 0.447368, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": -0.06408, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 2.298932, "worst_return": -0.565849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.040941, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.13854, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 2.364341, "worst_return": -0.636694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.052961, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.9175, "worst_return": -0.651568, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.926312, "energy": 24.849306, "activity_lines": [ 2.957333, 2.896364, 2.969619, 3.231785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.87, "volume": 14577657, "typical_volume": 19262668.8, "trend": 3.526, "fair_value": 5.51484, "relative_strength": -32.104188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.741546, "energy": 20.904282, "activity_lines": [ 2.958, 2.892, 2.94581, 3.187247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.77, "volume": 10427087, "typical_volume": 18753273.1, "trend": 3.489667, "fair_value": 5.511763, "relative_strength": -32.729701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.954035, "energy": 23.655817, "activity_lines": [ 2.908, 2.873455, 2.919333, 3.138473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.84, "volume": 38835428, "typical_volume": 19801467.6, "trend": 3.467333, "fair_value": 5.50984, "relative_strength": -30.873487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.152871, "energy": 26.267518, "activity_lines": [ 2.876667, 2.869091, 2.90319, 3.096559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.08, "volume": 24457651, "typical_volume": 19830881.5, "trend": 3.436, "fair_value": 5.510288, "relative_strength": -28.25673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.816751, "energy": 22.507943, "activity_lines": [ 2.924, 2.909455, 2.913048, 3.07157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }