{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a41390e8-fad5-4fdf-8462-b25e451f31ac", "symbol": "300606", "name": "Dongguan Golden Sun Abrasives Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.013, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.53, "architecture_energy": 31.526, "architecture_maturity": 5.127, "architecture_confidence": 49.718, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.18, "rotation_up": 14.84, "upward_expansion": 17.28, "deceleration": 58.15, "rotation_down": 62.73, "downward_expansion": 44.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.466666, 35.389091, 36.763888, 36.615954 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.34, "trend_reference": 35.736638, "distance_from_trend": -0.039081, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.371671, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.409013, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.389383, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.034911, "excess_performance": 0.027511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039081, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159131, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.409013, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.302181, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.113894, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034911, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.479206, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58507151, "relative_activity": 1.203241, "balance": 0.479206, "dry_up": 1.194881, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.199838, "annualized_volatility": 0.715102, "from_high_reference": -0.338088, "from_low_reference": 0.769963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.736638, "fair_value_reference": 24.371671, "structural_low": 23.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041982, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.009076, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.196603, "worst_return": -0.12129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.022944, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.294719, "worst_return": -0.165964, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.135957, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.14544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.778535, "worst_return": -0.057058, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235966, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16993, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057484, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034399, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134109, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"up", "direction": 6.218508, "energy": 10.349921, "activity_lines": [ 37.101333, 38.540188, 38.227853, 37.154075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.5, "volume": 65504496, "typical_volume": 52563846.9, "trend": 35.119876, "fair_value": 24.219719, "relative_strength": 10.55821, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.118591, "energy": 24.502835, "activity_lines": [ 34.488, 37.410126, 37.743362, 37.009603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.049999, "volume": 48676634, "typical_volume": 51585708.6, "trend": 35.371681, "fair_value": 24.263164, "relative_strength": 3.276234, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.883175, "energy": 33.756434, "activity_lines": [ 32.330666, 35.936909, 37.040485, 36.682514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.34, "volume": 58507151, "typical_volume": 48624617.85, "trend": 35.736638, "fair_value": 24.371671, "relative_strength": 11.389383, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.529691, "energy": 31.525818, "activity_lines": [ 32.466666, 35.389091, 36.763888, 36.615954 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }