{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4142f71-a61b-446c-b763-7c8e953d47cc", "symbol": "AFRM", "name": "Affirm Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.651, "architecture_energy": 39.225, "architecture_maturity": 80.582, "architecture_confidence": 82.129, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.12, "rotation_up": 37.12, "upward_expansion": 69.81, "deceleration": 85.47, "rotation_down": 27.77, "downward_expansion": 19.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 1317.866667, 1331.606545, 1261.989524, 1180.290324 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1350.0, "trend_reference": 1106.757668, "distance_from_trend": 0.219779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 951.005449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.41955, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.887179, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.387461, "excess_performance": 0.442128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.219779, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00298, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.41955, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150113, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068872, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250253, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.387461, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 17.457186, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85, "relative_activity": 0.031999, "balance": 17.457186, "dry_up": 0.065881, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065648, "annualized_volatility": 0.629499, "from_high_reference": -0.264305, "from_low_reference": 0.726232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1106.757668, "fair_value_reference": 951.005449, "structural_low": 782.049988, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.082159, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.068652, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.864444, "worst_return": -0.352818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.111117, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.104331, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.311295, "worst_return": -0.279499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.08231, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047452, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.239382, "worst_return": -0.394483, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 94.058676, "activity_lines": [ 1399.173332, 1308.903636, 1188.376763, 1130.367571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1340.0, "volume": 384, "typical_volume": 2673.2, "trend": 1115.091001, "fair_value": 931.425321, "relative_strength": 5.577657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.906689, "energy": 87.659712, "activity_lines": [ 1398.133333, 1325.676181, 1212.961382, 1144.738044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1300.0, "volume": 91, "typical_volume": 2663.1, "trend": 1113.757668, "fair_value": 937.89968, "relative_strength": 3.042294, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.003404, "energy": 82.653741, "activity_lines": [ 1368.933333, 1330.828727, 1231.423143, 1156.667657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1240.0, "volume": 140, "typical_volume": 2667.05, "trend": 1110.091001, "fair_value": 943.989423, "relative_strength": -2.156074, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.588744, "energy": 49.494633, "activity_lines": [ 1319.733333, 1321.944909, 1242.408715, 1164.812324 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1350.0, "volume": 85, "typical_volume": 2656.3, "trend": 1106.757668, "fair_value": 951.005449, "relative_strength": 6.887179, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.650588, "energy": 39.225324, "activity_lines": [ 1317.866667, 1331.606545, 1261.989524, 1180.290324 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }