{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a417a848-6729-42ec-8211-3283d38e1763", "symbol": "CMDT", "name": "PIMCO ETF TRUST COMMODITY STRATEGY ACTIVE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.89, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.792, "architecture_energy": 29.776, "architecture_maturity": 42.854, "architecture_confidence": 46.485, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.18, "rotation_up": 57.19, "upward_expansion": 64.99, "deceleration": 67.91, "rotation_down": 10.14, "downward_expansion": 10.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.457667, 31.997474, 32.318012, 32.152106 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.435, "trend_reference": 31.547293, "distance_from_trend": 0.028139, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.99685, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247651, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.112819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.129754, "excess_performance": 0.004129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028139, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050551, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247651, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08752, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094107, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129754, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.36678, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 215407, "relative_activity": 0.54901, "balance": 0.36678, "dry_up": 0.669465, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033301, "annualized_volatility": 0.143591, "from_high_reference": -0.068172, "from_low_reference": 0.281563 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.547293, "fair_value_reference": 25.99685, "structural_low": 28.202906, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.025041, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.029661, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.025041, "worst_return": 0.025041, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.653856, "energy": 16.328137, "activity_lines": [ 31.938633, 31.839826, 32.312206, 32.002308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.51, "volume": 224596, "typical_volume": 415829.65, "trend": 31.397604, "fair_value": 25.938245, "relative_strength": 1.620879, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.325677, "energy": 25.464073, "activity_lines": [ 32.279333, 31.912926, 32.319894, 32.085177 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.435, "volume": 215407, "typical_volume": 392355.35, "trend": 31.547293, "fair_value": 25.99685, "relative_strength": -2.112819, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.792252, "energy": 29.776245, "activity_lines": [ 32.457667, 31.997474, 32.318012, 32.152106 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }