{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4211a33-10ad-4b1e-b04d-388ba0a3bf21", "symbol": "300467", "name": "Sichuan Xunyou Network Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.591, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.591, "architecture_energy": 24.397, "architecture_maturity": 34.762, "architecture_confidence": 40.899, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.92, "rotation_up": 18.83, "upward_expansion": 19.42, "deceleration": 54.1, "rotation_down": 53.36, "downward_expansion": 42.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.429334, 33.081455, 33.985571, 33.594387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.040001, "trend_reference": 33.284333, "distance_from_trend": 0.022703, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.694423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.644888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.194089, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.047707, "excess_performance": 0.040307, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022703, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.644888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.527587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.111941, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047707, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.587699, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15687931, "relative_activity": 0.71933, "balance": 0.587699, "dry_up": 0.987563, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103679, "annualized_volatility": 0.502137, "from_high_reference": -0.215487, "from_low_reference": 0.555759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.284333, "fair_value_reference": 20.694423, "structural_low": 26.790001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.029461, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.280571, "worst_return": -0.076812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.151579, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.129222, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.266667, "worst_return": 0.05997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.283429, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.298573, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.636647, "worst_return": -0.047018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.004211, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.057865, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.19837, "worst_return": -0.132684, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034815, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11088, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.244548, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.365489, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154587, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190255, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.184713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": 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20.411795, "relative_strength": 5.778688, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.621471, "energy": 5.787838, "activity_lines": [ 33.505334, 34.084182, 34.286333, 33.717591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.92, "volume": 25404822, "typical_volume": 21803176.15, "trend": 32.973, "fair_value": 20.501923, "relative_strength": 8.735723, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.267918, "energy": 15.689728, "activity_lines": [ 32.724, 33.543091, 34.149952, 33.658215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.049999, "volume": 21069442, "typical_volume": 21858468.2, "trend": 33.106333, "fair_value": 20.577692, "relative_strength": 7.103215, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.156326, "energy": 29.011609, "activity_lines": [ 31.908, 32.976, 33.928667, 33.53415 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.040001, "volume": 15687931, "typical_volume": 21809090.2, "trend": 33.284333, "fair_value": 20.694423, "relative_strength": 11.194089, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.590754, "energy": 24.397217, "activity_lines": [ 32.429334, 33.081455, 33.985571, 33.594387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }