{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a424014c-72bf-4f3d-a24f-e20f56b16520", "symbol": "CINEVISTA", "name": "Cinevista Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.785, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.394, "architecture_energy": 29.13, "architecture_maturity": 31.836, "architecture_confidence": 67.754, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.17, "rotation_up": 21.71, "upward_expansion": 13.38, "deceleration": 47.49, "rotation_down": 58.86, "downward_expansion": 52.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.022, 15.332727, 15.454428, 15.428193 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.7, "trend_reference": 15.440333, "distance_from_trend": -0.047948, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.319744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.151258, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.766471, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071383, "excess_performance": -0.027674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047948, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011987, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.151258, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045862, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071383, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.61553, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64295, "relative_activity": 0.685022, "balance": 0.61553, "dry_up": 0.739181, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081947, "annualized_volatility": 0.244868, "from_high_reference": -0.355263, "from_low_reference": 0.208882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.440333, "fair_value_reference": 17.319744, "structural_low": 12.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.030519, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.042653, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.174076, "worst_return": -0.177606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.065744, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.087303, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.148148, "worst_return": -0.2785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.041413, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.076047, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.526971, "worst_return": -0.213333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.087428, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.088062, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.676349, "worst_return": -0.167582, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020357, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147598, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1865, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.107248, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.326237, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03937, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035003, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042578, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041585, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052738, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052224, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.8, "volume": 143600, "typical_volume": 246615.75, "trend": 12.546667, "fair_value": 12.145513, "relative_strength": 9.926209, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", 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"fair_value": 17.319744, "relative_strength": -4.035716, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.173688, "energy": 25.466733, "activity_lines": [ 15.844, 15.768, 15.601428, 15.546709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.15, "volume": 59272, "typical_volume": 93755.15, "trend": 15.520333, "fair_value": 17.325513, "relative_strength": -5.943877, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.60225, "energy": 12.102348, "activity_lines": [ 15.649333, 15.664545, 15.571047, 15.523591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.29, "volume": 94841, "typical_volume": 93284.25, "trend": 15.521333, "fair_value": 17.329936, "relative_strength": -2.531197, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.001955, "energy": 4.272697, "activity_lines": [ 15.498, 15.593091, 15.555905, 15.508731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.06, "volume": 59105, "typical_volume": 92698.7, "trend": 15.487, "fair_value": 17.325513, "relative_strength": -6.110596, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.417542, "energy": 16.677644, "activity_lines": [ 15.281333, 15.489636, 15.521, 15.478968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.7, "volume": 64295, "typical_volume": 93858.3, "trend": 15.440333, "fair_value": 17.319744, "relative_strength": -8.766471, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.393541, "energy": 29.130044, "activity_lines": [ 15.022, 15.332727, 15.454428, 15.428193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }