{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a426d79b-6c2d-4330-a75d-5b47990bfb4f", "symbol": "JRAW", "name": "JPM All Country Research Enhanc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.675, "architecture_energy": 67.389, "architecture_maturity": 75.684, "architecture_confidence": 64.963, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.09, "rotation_up": 52.96, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.47, "rotation_down": 29.52, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.407333, 28.329, 27.94619, 27.39958 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.975, "trend_reference": 26.740667, "distance_from_trend": 0.083556, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.446686, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185232, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.103208, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136497, "excess_performance": -0.034394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083556, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046335, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185232, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043172, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015356, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136497, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.222665, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 667, "relative_activity": 0.100409, "balance": 2.222665, "dry_up": 1.257367, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015199, "annualized_volatility": 0.117593, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.256505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.740667, "fair_value_reference": 24.446686, "structural_low": 24.334999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.001249, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009226, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001249, "worst_return": 0.001249, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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[ 28.214, 27.997, 27.257, 26.76972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.555, "volume": 1117, "typical_volume": 5475.15, "trend": 26.28, "fair_value": 24.258719, "relative_strength": -2.818647, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.238975, "energy": 83.801805, "activity_lines": [ 28.361667, 28.145545, 27.438762, 26.924624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.08, "volume": 22681, "typical_volume": 6530.05, "trend": 26.4035, "fair_value": 24.304759, "relative_strength": -3.008853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.210091, "energy": 67.320586, "activity_lines": [ 28.301, 28.171454, 27.561976, 27.040753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.059999, "volume": 4006, "typical_volume": 6414.95, "trend": 26.526333, "fair_value": 24.349464, "relative_strength": -2.849779, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.043643, "energy": 63.682777, "activity_lines": [ 28.217333, 28.177272, 27.672595, 27.147623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.084999, "volume": 6056, "typical_volume": 6696.8, "trend": 26.628333, "fair_value": 24.393412, "relative_strength": -3.348806, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.299974, "energy": 54.43151, "activity_lines": [ 28.165999, 28.175272, 27.773762, 27.248183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.975, "volume": 667, "typical_volume": 6642.85, "trend": 26.740667, "fair_value": 24.446686, "relative_strength": -3.103208, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.674646, "energy": 67.38861, "activity_lines": [ 28.407333, 28.329, 27.94619, 27.39958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }