{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4302ad4-bd07-4773-9400-4bd789f23edb", "symbol": "IDT", "name": "IDT Australia Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 9.269, "architecture_energy": 24.298, "architecture_maturity": 45.506, "architecture_confidence": 63.489, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.5, "rotation_up": 47.09, "upward_expansion": 23.6, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 20.06, "downward_expansion": 59.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.039333, 0.036418, 0.03651, 0.038247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.048, "trend_reference": 0.041067, "distance_from_trend": 0.168831, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.082483, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.418064, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.799025, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043478, "excess_performance": -0.020227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168831, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135439, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.418064, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113903, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06799, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.309426, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043478, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.440326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1560753, "relative_activity": 2.443361, "balance": 1.440326, "dry_up": 1.722449, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084135, "annualized_volatility": 0.557289, "from_high_reference": -0.36, "from_low_reference": 0.548387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.041067, "fair_value_reference": 0.082483, "structural_low": 0.031, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038495, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06882, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.129412, "worst_return": -0.322917, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.08, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.099517, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.010753, "worst_return": -0.188235, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.084157, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.032258, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.055882, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.125918, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088235, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233766, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052995, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.577778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.068, "volume": 856257, "typical_volume": 1560204.2, "trend": 0.0717, "fair_value": 0.213788, "relative_strength": -18.359393, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.589646, "energy": 18.582493, 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"fair_value": 0.083022, "relative_strength": -38.071642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.323709, "energy": 84.019082, "activity_lines": [ 0.032067, 0.033164, 0.03591, 0.038578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.034, "volume": 1382729, "typical_volume": 559702.85, "trend": 0.0417, "fair_value": 0.082804, "relative_strength": -32.372752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.48245, "energy": 56.496314, "activity_lines": [ 0.0326, 0.033109, 0.03549, 0.038045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.038, "volume": 737210, "typical_volume": 589123.3, "trend": 0.041167, "fair_value": 0.082605, "relative_strength": -24.580306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.486964, "energy": 32.819729, "activity_lines": [ 0.034467, 0.033891, 0.03551, 0.037806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.048, "volume": 1560753, "typical_volume": 638773.05, "trend": 0.041067, "fair_value": 0.082483, "relative_strength": -6.799025, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.268808, "energy": 24.298308, "activity_lines": [ 0.039333, 0.036418, 0.03651, 0.038247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }