{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4306745-aa19-400e-bdfc-303eaf2f3fa9", "symbol": "000837", "name": "Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.368, "architecture_energy": 73.113, "architecture_maturity": 15.912, "architecture_confidence": 80.47, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.96, "rotation_up": 11.15, "upward_expansion": 18.88, "deceleration": 34.24, "rotation_down": 70.91, "downward_expansion": 87.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.556, 10.206545, 10.835714, 11.058065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.06, "trend_reference": 11.482667, "distance_from_trend": -0.123897, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.773551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.301651, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.180114, "excess_performance": -0.187514, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123897, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050875, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066232, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148127, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029611, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180114, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.357499, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77067703, "relative_activity": 0.851449, "balance": 1.357499, "dry_up": 1.007079, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120355, "annualized_volatility": 0.546667, "from_high_reference": -0.381254, "from_low_reference": 0.180751 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.482667, "fair_value_reference": 10.773551, "structural_low": 8.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.047161, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03631, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.358289, "worst_return": -0.206787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038005, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.058928, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.315942, "worst_return": -0.268462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.092683, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008206, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.120988, "worst_return": -0.296264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-8.524087, "energy": 5.999026, "activity_lines": [ 11.878, 11.936909, 11.664286, 11.762292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.72, "volume": 156111713, "typical_volume": 94864309.75, "trend": 11.896961, "fair_value": 10.908253, "relative_strength": -22.194373, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.230355, "energy": 24.594889, "activity_lines": [ 11.478, 11.720364, 11.580524, 11.682535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.93, "volume": 121791839, "typical_volume": 97799359.85, "trend": 11.785667, "fair_value": 10.861701, "relative_strength": -28.149569, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.994859, "energy": 59.742571, "activity_lines": [ 10.568, 11.185455, 11.334524, 11.491118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.58, "volume": 83104845, "typical_volume": 97208372.95, "trend": 11.67, "fair_value": 10.819792, "relative_strength": -30.559124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.572035, "energy": 78.641916, "activity_lines": [ 9.759333, 10.639091, 11.072048, 11.284301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.68, "volume": 82652922, "typical_volume": 91473699.05, "trend": 11.576667, "fair_value": 10.794051, "relative_strength": -19.839682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.880448, "energy": 74.503516, "activity_lines": [ 9.558667, 10.361273, 10.929952, 11.155914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.06, "volume": 77067703, "typical_volume": 90513593.3, "trend": 11.482667, "fair_value": 10.773551, "relative_strength": -20.301651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.368227, "energy": 73.112613, "activity_lines": [ 9.556, 10.206545, 10.835714, 11.058065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }