{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a445d4bf-53ba-4c0b-8b1f-257be779769b", "symbol": "HUFV-A", "name": "Hufvudstaden AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.984, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.595, "architecture_energy": 17.1, "architecture_maturity": 34.184, "architecture_confidence": 75.349, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.21, "rotation_up": 19.97, "upward_expansion": 9.83, "deceleration": 52.09, "rotation_down": 38.37, "downward_expansion": 64.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.939998, 120.785453, 121.574285, 121.798785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 121.699997, "trend_reference": 121.981156, "distance_from_trend": -0.002305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 120.456525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010323, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.714403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002969, "excess_performance": -0.064463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006366, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010323, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117144, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039047, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002969, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.390653, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 621446, "relative_activity": 0.777781, "balance": 0.390653, "dry_up": 1.186237, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03154, "annualized_volatility": 0.166751, "from_high_reference": -0.057983, "from_low_reference": 0.074139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 121.981156, "fair_value_reference": 120.456525, "structural_low": 113.300003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.001646, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.003035, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.152959, "worst_return": -0.112108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.023891, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.014104, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.162791, "worst_return": -0.120329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045291, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013322, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.184838, "worst_return": -0.205781, 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122.103208, 122.130984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 121.5, "volume": 776778, "typical_volume": 929774.2, "trend": 121.908841, "fair_value": 120.467864, "relative_strength": -9.484118, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.444867, "energy": 18.693717, "activity_lines": [ 120.959999, 121.418181, 122.013105, 122.107178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 120.699997, "volume": 1750637, "typical_volume": 923541.15, "trend": 121.908998, "fair_value": 120.46771, "relative_strength": -8.87324, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.627164, "energy": 10.676755, "activity_lines": [ 121.059998, 121.152726, 121.868554, 122.029188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 119.300003, "volume": 554726, "typical_volume": 882574.65, "trend": 121.888528, "fair_value": 120.462768, "relative_strength": -11.075489, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.73558, "energy": 22.982369, "activity_lines": [ 120.606666, 120.689091, 121.622734, 121.860865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 121.199997, "volume": 864397, "typical_volume": 854256.85, "trend": 121.973706, "fair_value": 120.452064, "relative_strength": -10.639621, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.187255, "energy": 17.470698, "activity_lines": [ 120.726666, 120.639999, 121.573809, 121.816444 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 121.699997, "volume": 621446, "typical_volume": 798998.75, "trend": 121.981156, "fair_value": 120.456525, "relative_strength": -11.714403, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.595469, "energy": 17.100187, "activity_lines": [ 120.939998, 120.785453, 121.574285, 121.798785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }