{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a449ca4d-761c-4a8c-9a51-8dc0e2322714", "symbol": "UNG", "name": "United States Natural Gas Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.887, "architecture_energy": 76.675, "architecture_maturity": 19.005, "architecture_confidence": 81.509, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.51, "rotation_up": 8.97, "upward_expansion": 16.54, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 78.06, "downward_expansion": 92.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.147333, 10.626909, 10.904905, 11.169118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.74, "trend_reference": 11.630667, "distance_from_trend": -0.162559, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.308974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.402783, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.242544, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.266014, "excess_performance": -0.391638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162559, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06631, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.402783, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000641, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292425, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010091, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266014, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.571857, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48721393, "relative_activity": 1.245267, "balance": 0.571857, "dry_up": 1.099174, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08393, "annualized_volatility": 0.332686, "from_high_reference": -0.4279, "from_low_reference": 0.02043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.630667, "fair_value_reference": 16.308974, "structural_low": 9.545, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.028059, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.036092, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.315427, "worst_return": -0.304255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.030443, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.079792, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.53657, "worst_return": -0.606628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.081111, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.185413, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.759066, "worst_return": -0.70365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 10.6, "volume": 34664808, "typical_volume": 44315164.55, "trend": 11.850667, "fair_value": 16.785513, "relative_strength": -24.087535, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.606145, "energy": 21.199911, "activity_lines": [ 11.317333, 11.410545, 11.330381, 11.566366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.51, "volume": 42307774, "typical_volume": 44290974.65, "trend": 11.794667, "fair_value": 16.666474, "relative_strength": -22.634736, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.815288, "energy": 37.895504, "activity_lines": [ 11.011333, 11.256364, 11.24019, 11.479871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.55, "volume": 33171416, "typical_volume": 41463238.65, "trend": 11.719333, "fair_value": 16.552308, "relative_strength": -21.246473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.281841, "energy": 57.066092, "activity_lines": [ 10.774667, 11.110545, 11.158619, 11.39957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.06, "volume": 47821293, "typical_volume": 39846096.6, "trend": 11.652667, "fair_value": 16.43859, "relative_strength": -25.027986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.513795, "energy": 70.644502, "activity_lines": [ 10.454, 10.889818, 11.040857, 11.292516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.74, "volume": 48721393, "typical_volume": 39125268.65, "trend": 11.630667, "fair_value": 16.308974, "relative_strength": -29.242544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.887233, "energy": 76.675404, "activity_lines": [ 10.147333, 10.626909, 10.904905, 11.169118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }