{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a44df9e5-63c4-4784-a89a-a4c021b2d0f8", "symbol": "AAQ1", "name": "aap Implantate AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.558, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.51, "architecture_energy": 53.795, "architecture_maturity": 7.548, "architecture_confidence": 75.252, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.18, "rotation_up": 14.78, "upward_expansion": 27.25, "deceleration": 49.48, "rotation_down": 65.11, "downward_expansion": 54.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.591333, 1.636, 1.735667, 1.703806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.58, "trend_reference": 1.653333, "distance_from_trend": -0.044355, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.380256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.144715, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.766457, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060403, "excess_performance": -0.004237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044355, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065979, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.144715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.420109, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.392435, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060403, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.101377, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2106, "relative_activity": 0.164975, "balance": 0.101377, "dry_up": 0.257255, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080818, "annualized_volatility": 0.442628, "from_high_reference": -0.324786, "from_low_reference": 0.253968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.653333, "fair_value_reference": 1.380256, "structural_low": 1.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024306, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044663, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.193548, "worst_return": -0.118919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.043929, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022326, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034722, "worst_return": -0.122581, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.179794, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.247206, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.430556, "worst_return": -0.070968, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.551613, 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"2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.241611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048611, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073826, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", 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13008.85, "trend": 1.581, "fair_value": 1.343782, "relative_strength": 12.191324, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.147823, "energy": 39.020771, "activity_lines": [ 1.928, 1.943636, 1.780857, 1.691548 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 1.73, "volume": 4309, "typical_volume": 12951.25, "trend": 1.593, "fair_value": 1.349038, "relative_strength": 3.803104, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.110912, "energy": 24.611653, "activity_lines": [ 1.852667, 1.914182, 1.786952, 1.701161 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.68, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 12830.35, "trend": 1.603667, "fair_value": 1.353462, "relative_strength": 2.10489, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.006232, "energy": 23.569078, "activity_lines": [ 1.778, 1.869273, 1.787143, 1.706774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.74, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 12335.45, "trend": 1.616, "fair_value": 1.358301, "relative_strength": 1.506684, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.308051, "energy": 23.868608, "activity_lines": [ 1.747333, 1.835636, 1.792143, 1.71557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.62, "volume": 10832, "typical_volume": 12851.05, "trend": 1.625, "fair_value": 1.363173, "relative_strength": -2.491834, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.540293, "energy": 19.718445, "activity_lines": [ 1.693333, 1.784909, 1.784667, 1.715828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.57, "volume": 7202, "typical_volume": 13086.55, "trend": 1.631667, "fair_value": 1.367404, "relative_strength": -4.116878, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.263977, "energy": 24.325572, "activity_lines": [ 1.642667, 1.732, 1.771619, 1.71228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.63, "volume": 3643, "typical_volume": 13023.85, "trend": 1.641333, "fair_value": 1.371923, "relative_strength": -1.078095, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.407077, "energy": 34.17453, "activity_lines": [ 1.63, 1.698909, 1.763571, 1.712172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.58, "volume": 185, "typical_volume": 12961.25, "trend": 1.648333, "fair_value": 1.376026, "relative_strength": -5.593629, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.580402, "energy": 54.428823, "activity_lines": [ 1.607333, 1.663273, 1.75, 1.708215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.58, "volume": 2106, "typical_volume": 12765.55, "trend": 1.653333, "fair_value": 1.380256, "relative_strength": -7.766457, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.509725, "energy": 53.795112, "activity_lines": [ 1.591333, 1.636, 1.735667, 1.703806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }