{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a44f4079-07ac-4b32-896a-babbf75dacf8", "symbol": "GBDC", "name": "Golub Capital BDC Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.703, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.367, "architecture_energy": 42.244, "architecture_maturity": 25.956, "architecture_confidence": 75.857, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.06, "rotation_up": 54.43, "upward_expansion": 80.33, "deceleration": 50.59, "rotation_down": 17.2, "downward_expansion": 7.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.97, 12.896875, 12.849227, 12.701597 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.17, "trend_reference": 12.549383, "distance_from_trend": 0.049454, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.463081, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056721, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.657179, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.106309, "excess_performance": -0.081145, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049454, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001513, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056721, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005179, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076605, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106309, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.170252, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7816104, "relative_activity": 1.092855, "balance": 1.170252, "dry_up": 0.735859, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038151, "annualized_volatility": 0.195827, "from_high_reference": -0.028287, "from_low_reference": 0.179624 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.549383, "fair_value_reference": 12.463081, "structural_low": 11.164573, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.002012, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004971, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.05681, "worst_return": -0.104556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026352, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.020577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059395, "worst_return": -0.11482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007232, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.021883, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.190251, "worst_return": -0.055118, "sufficient": 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12.738837, 12.679797, 12.569598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.92, "volume": 5040084, "typical_volume": 9216748.45, "trend": 12.537331, "fair_value": 12.388604, "relative_strength": -13.499403, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.72743, "energy": 20.741597, "activity_lines": [ 12.798929, 12.760774, 12.724321, 12.594002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.06, "volume": 5107191, "typical_volume": 8562621.2, "trend": 12.547076, "fair_value": 12.409643, "relative_strength": -8.252826, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.786305, "energy": 37.628712, "activity_lines": [ 12.898667, 12.817821, 12.775535, 12.627723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.78, "volume": 3838030, "typical_volume": 8065915.7, "trend": 12.544642, "fair_value": 12.427839, "relative_strength": -8.267662, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.594075, "energy": 38.329927, "activity_lines": [ 12.898, 12.819727, 12.792051, 12.64275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.83, "volume": 4290125, "typical_volume": 7382419.05, "trend": 12.543243, "fair_value": 12.446035, "relative_strength": -7.951992, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.397682, "energy": 33.294699, "activity_lines": [ 12.885333, 12.829809, 12.807217, 12.661161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.17, "volume": 7816104, "typical_volume": 7152002.3, "trend": 12.549383, "fair_value": 12.463081, "relative_strength": -9.657179, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.367386, "energy": 42.243757, "activity_lines": [ 12.97, 12.896875, 12.849227, 12.701597 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }