{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a451fbcf-e031-4002-ae04-b490bebfb3fe", "symbol": "00737", "name": "Cathay Nasdaq CTA Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.977, "architecture_energy": 45.781, "architecture_maturity": 31.799, "architecture_confidence": 64.738, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.64, "rotation_up": 51.2, "upward_expansion": 79.12, "deceleration": 63.63, "rotation_down": 25.29, "downward_expansion": 5.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.837999, 38.583091, 38.004857, 37.148494 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.48, "trend_reference": 36.431333, "distance_from_trend": 0.111131, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.34891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251356, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.700858, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120089, "excess_performance": -0.259223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.111131, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251356, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087203, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177009, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107503, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120089, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.247817, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 915420, "relative_activity": 1.042143, "balance": 2.247817, "dry_up": 0.926855, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039336, "annualized_volatility": 0.254077, "from_high_reference": -0.021986, "from_low_reference": 0.292878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.431333, "fair_value_reference": 32.34891, "structural_low": 31.309999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.007282, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.012159, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.093886, "worst_return": -0.078341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020328, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.074916, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116642, "worst_return": -0.115315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031613, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.108889, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.136839, "worst_return": -0.006961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028479, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038403, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001193, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021487, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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32.247564, "relative_strength": -25.019926, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.031432, "energy": 31.341372, "activity_lines": [ 37.889333, 38.156545, 37.408619, 36.716882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.669998, "volume": 620159, "typical_volume": 871141.9, "trend": 36.272333, "fair_value": 32.293269, "relative_strength": -20.037724, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.591209, "energy": 29.632119, "activity_lines": [ 38.120666, 38.211818, 37.632523, 36.877032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.48, "volume": 915420, "typical_volume": 878401.15, "trend": 36.431333, "fair_value": 32.34891, "relative_strength": -17.700858, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.977017, "energy": 45.780802, "activity_lines": [ 38.837999, 38.583091, 38.004857, 37.148494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }