{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a453d35e-3bc5-4492-ad53-1645ae01745b", "symbol": "HUZ", "name": "Global X Silver ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.845, "architecture_energy": 57.351, "architecture_maturity": 34.871, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.35, "rotation_up": 23.97, "upward_expansion": 9.69, "deceleration": 53.23, "rotation_down": 59.73, "downward_expansion": 85.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.357333, 24.613636, 26.701, 28.185032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.940001, "trend_reference": 30.424667, "distance_from_trend": -0.147402, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.576731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.475815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.460831, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191397, "excess_performance": -0.311818, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147402, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006314, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.475815, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.563899, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38469, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191397, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.131319, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34200, "relative_activity": 0.425188, "balance": 0.131319, "dry_up": 0.895133, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083032, "annualized_volatility": 0.497631, "from_high_reference": -0.486031, "from_low_reference": 0.630421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.424667, "fair_value_reference": 17.576731, "structural_low": 22.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.026122, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.013232, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.147802, "worst_return": -0.15211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.066434, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.017181, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.242927, "worst_return": -0.127077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007616, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007692, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.254545, "worst_return": -0.112933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074949, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.06366, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.447475, "worst_return": -0.148601, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.161491, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013533, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025934, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147635, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064201, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012748, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031922, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": 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27.709999, "volume": 13600, "typical_volume": 308525.0, "trend": 31.082334, "fair_value": 16.877115, "relative_strength": -1.869735, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.740336, "energy": 51.654706, "activity_lines": [ 29.092667, 30.257091, 31.00481, 31.566086 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 26.549999, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 213055.0, "trend": 31.268334, "fair_value": 16.980641, "relative_strength": -6.448978, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.07953, "energy": 65.506017, "activity_lines": [ 28.012666, 29.454546, 30.503476, 31.273678 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 24.09, "volume": 24600, "typical_volume": 134825.0, "trend": 31.290667, "fair_value": 17.067564, "relative_strength": -15.367988, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.182115, "energy": 85.816765, "activity_lines": [ 26.432666, 28.295091, 29.805, 30.810559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 25.309999, "volume": 11200, "typical_volume": 123685.0, "trend": 31.316, "fair_value": 17.161154, "relative_strength": -12.02483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.253224, "energy": 82.689082, "activity_lines": [ 25.722666, 27.529273, 29.260762, 30.42471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.360001, "volume": 92100, "typical_volume": 120665.0, "trend": 31.265334, "fair_value": 17.243269, "relative_strength": -15.608452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.670826, "energy": 85.297977, "activity_lines": [ 25.074667, 26.7, 28.657238, 29.975936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.889999, "volume": 139400, "typical_volume": 115540.0, "trend": 31.092667, "fair_value": 17.316667, "relative_strength": -20.695342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.913304, "energy": 90.371702, "activity_lines": [ 24.17, 25.726182, 27.964667, 29.435592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.76, "volume": 50200, "typical_volume": 96025.0, "trend": 30.883334, "fair_value": 17.396859, "relative_strength": -18.073011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.23543, "energy": 82.539075, "activity_lines": [ 23.876666, 25.098, 27.431095, 28.962516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.559999, "volume": 64200, "typical_volume": 89075.0, "trend": 30.667667, "fair_value": 17.477564, "relative_strength": -18.591969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.463768, "energy": 78.147224, "activity_lines": [ 23.702666, 24.571454, 26.930048, 28.490043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.940001, "volume": 34200, "typical_volume": 80435.0, "trend": 30.424667, "fair_value": 17.576731, "relative_strength": -13.460831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.845274, "energy": 57.351458, "activity_lines": [ 24.357333, 24.613636, 26.701, 28.185032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }