{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a456526b-f884-46dc-935f-55e738a79e49", "symbol": "SDJP", "name": "iShares MSCI Japan Screened UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.551, "architecture_energy": 37.695, "architecture_maturity": 58.949, "architecture_confidence": 93.138, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.29, "rotation_up": 40.04, "upward_expansion": 66.93, "deceleration": 91.35, "rotation_down": 28.6, "downward_expansion": 13.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.4783, 8.477636, 8.379085, 8.240442 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.7755, "trend_reference": 8.087275, "distance_from_trend": 0.0851, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.428492, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.365095, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.483022, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.099411, "excess_performance": 0.048176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0851, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.365095, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026765, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05483, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099411, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.574295, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 545680, "relative_activity": 2.038871, "balance": 9.574295, "dry_up": 1.187199, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029999, "annualized_volatility": 0.238772, "from_high_reference": -0.002897, "from_low_reference": 0.301216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.087275, "fair_value_reference": 6.428492, "structural_low": 7.205, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006344, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007222, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.112504, "worst_return": -0.039317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062018, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.065059, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186644, "worst_return": -0.03213, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012562, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081914, "worst_return": -0.153477, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01021, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019665, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031874, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027469, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005061, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"fair_value": 6.385102, "relative_strength": 1.876911, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.266955, "energy": 31.282387, "activity_lines": [ 8.3848, 8.429232, 8.296994, 8.17256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.34, "volume": 361196, "typical_volume": 250746.8, "trend": 8.048708, "fair_value": 6.405191, "relative_strength": 0.701726, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.959305, "energy": 21.387266, "activity_lines": [ 8.354733, 8.414638, 8.31935, 8.193553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.7755, "volume": 545680, "typical_volume": 267638.25, "trend": 8.087275, "fair_value": 6.428492, "relative_strength": 5.483022, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.550695, "energy": 37.695076, "activity_lines": [ 8.4783, 8.477636, 8.379085, 8.240442 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }