{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a45bac6d-e055-4b4b-80c3-4319402e5a4b", "symbol": "ALVAL", "name": "Valbiotis SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.603, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.117, "architecture_energy": 41.493, "architecture_maturity": 18.185, "architecture_confidence": 88.524, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.66, "rotation_up": 18.76, "upward_expansion": 5.53, "deceleration": 51.11, "rotation_down": 55.41, "downward_expansion": 78.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.790133, 0.803535, 0.877884, 0.917467 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.804, "trend_reference": 0.946048, "distance_from_trend": -0.150148, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.04298, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.606457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.875698, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.265082, "excess_performance": -0.318394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150148, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056958, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.606457, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012754, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200306, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265082, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.781909, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 559589, "relative_activity": 0.990831, "balance": 1.781909, "dry_up": 0.588512, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156334, "annualized_volatility": 0.530347, "from_high_reference": -0.37963, "from_low_reference": 0.502804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.946048, "fair_value_reference": 2.04298, "structural_low": 0.735, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.007143, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": 0.002277, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.513333, "worst_return": -0.687273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.081747, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.100038, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.440922, "worst_return": -0.334601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.123799, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.137854, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.886667, "worst_return": -0.573434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055191, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.137091, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.019011, "worst_return": -0.679198, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.011407, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175627, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097826, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033835, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032338, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.197037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.329907, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011236, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015595, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195464, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070588, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045514, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.62, "volume": 121067, "typical_volume": 150701.5, "trend": 4.079333, "fair_value": 5.755577, "relative_strength": 3.978682, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.826509, "energy": 61.665599, "activity_lines": [ 0.8136, 0.885893, 0.94283, 0.955849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.798, "volume": 187471, "typical_volume": 651143.55, "trend": 0.938248, "fair_value": 2.107897, "relative_strength": -10.416452, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.621056, "energy": 59.486853, "activity_lines": [ 0.8036, 0.860613, 0.925676, 0.94711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.79, "volume": 314928, "typical_volume": 612832.1, "trend": 0.941248, "fair_value": 2.085461, "relative_strength": -11.35594, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.177667, "energy": 56.592118, "activity_lines": [ 0.797133, 0.83655, 0.908845, 0.937546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.769, "volume": 267502, "typical_volume": 594511.9, "trend": 0.942981, "fair_value": 2.064108, "relative_strength": -14.888999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.993328, "energy": 54.57012, "activity_lines": [ 0.7886, 0.814343, 0.891148, 0.926433 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.804, "volume": 559589, "typical_volume": 564767.25, "trend": 0.946048, "fair_value": 2.04298, "relative_strength": -12.875698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.116712, "energy": 41.492994, "activity_lines": [ 0.790133, 0.803535, 0.877884, 0.917467 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }