{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4630274-636f-4f4c-a269-d16d74c02175", "symbol": "PCJEWELLER", "name": "PC Jeweller Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 76.193, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.035, "architecture_energy": 13.798, "architecture_maturity": 21.311, "architecture_confidence": 63.451, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.14, "rotation_up": 41.22, "upward_expansion": 42.29, "deceleration": 41.0, "rotation_down": 27.54, "downward_expansion": 11.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.541333, 9.502727, 9.330238, 9.266667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.77, "trend_reference": 9.365333, "distance_from_trend": 0.043209, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.755731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001463, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.069433, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.038386, "excess_performance": 0.005323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043209, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038566, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001463, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029197, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09866, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038386, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.323862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 895352410, "relative_activity": 1.4498, "balance": 0.323862, "dry_up": 2.320201, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105189, "annualized_volatility": 0.470655, "from_high_reference": -0.364759, "from_low_reference": 0.307898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.365333, "fair_value_reference": 9.755731, "structural_low": 7.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.024466, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.035967, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.981211, "worst_return": -0.225681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.033443, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000563, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 2.05428, "worst_return": -0.224012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0909, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.097811, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 2.099631, "worst_return": -0.262079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178903, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048951, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011971, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128221, 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"trend": 9.396667, "fair_value": 9.629385, "relative_strength": -7.3767, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.814025, "energy": 28.366905, "activity_lines": [ 9.694, 9.417818, 9.22419, 9.258301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.28, "volume": 1625709006, "typical_volume": 559435662.85, "trend": 9.396667, "fair_value": 9.669609, "relative_strength": -8.474758, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.107495, "energy": 21.620687, "activity_lines": [ 9.622667, 9.434182, 9.246571, 9.250774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.26, "volume": 637703440, "typical_volume": 582286431.6, "trend": 9.387, "fair_value": 9.710667, "relative_strength": -10.041978, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.390714, "energy": 15.984974, "activity_lines": [ 9.52, 9.430182, 9.265905, 9.241957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.77, "volume": 895352410, "typical_volume": 617569470.15, "trend": 9.365333, "fair_value": 9.755731, "relative_strength": -5.069433, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.034667, "energy": 13.797631, "activity_lines": [ 9.541333, 9.502727, 9.330238, 9.266667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }