{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a467fc03-76eb-49bd-b610-5c04b6cd30ba",
    "symbol": "HGH",
    "name": "Heartland Group Holdings Limited",
    "exchange": "NZE",
    "country": "NZ",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NZ50",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 77.831,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 53.816,
    "architecture_energy": 32.209,
    "architecture_maturity": 16.367,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.227,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 34.51,
        "rotation_up": 51.65,
        "upward_expansion": 76.45,
        "deceleration": 61.77,
        "rotation_down": 18.47,
        "downward_expansion": 3.12
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.225667,
        1.224909,
        1.198071,
        1.194679
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 1.205,
    "trend_reference": 1.193024,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.010038,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 1.055972,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.141129,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 3.855648,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.00292,
    "excess_performance": -0.025354,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010038,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03976,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.141129,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.100662,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038556,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.067851,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00292,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.482231,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1868838,
      "relative_activity": 0.748608,
      "balance": 1.482231,
      "dry_up": 0.751951,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.045005,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.193523,
      "from_high_reference": -0.062257,
      "from_low_reference": 0.602696
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1.193024,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.055972,
      "structural_low": 1.015,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": 0.006061,
        "positive_rate": 0.526316,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.526316,
        "median_excess_return": 0.023198,
        "regime_survival": 0.736842,
        "best_return": 0.128205,
        "worst_return": -0.073034,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
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        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
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        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
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        "worst_return": -0.04903,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.03853,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.096928,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.243949,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 4683193.2,
        "trend": 1.169833,
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        "relative_strength": 10.864891,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.611877,
        "energy": 43.799028,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 78730,
        "typical_volume": 4458632.95,
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        "relative_strength": 11.345538,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 1.063296,
        "relative_strength": 7.517698,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 47.753668,
        "energy": 48.660633,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 1739719,
        "typical_volume": 4221203.75,
        "trend": 1.183034,
        "fair_value": 1.061355,
        "relative_strength": 8.361397,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.656598,
        "energy": 31.950192,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.218,
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          1.184238,
          1.186091
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.25,
        "volume": 2073876,
        "typical_volume": 4090916.55,
        "trend": 1.187732,
        "fair_value": 1.059552,
        "relative_strength": 9.592151,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.790444,
        "energy": 40.251653,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.228333,
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          1.190452,
          1.190411
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.24,
        "volume": 1826303,
        "typical_volume": 4046408.45,
        "trend": 1.191123,
        "fair_value": 1.057738,
        "relative_strength": 8.539818,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.080207,
        "energy": 37.748072,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.234,
          1.227455,
          1.195857,
          1.193784
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.205,
        "volume": 1868838,
        "typical_volume": 2496417.8,
        "trend": 1.193024,
        "fair_value": 1.055972,
        "relative_strength": 3.855648,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.815937,
        "energy": 32.208536,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.225667,
          1.224909,
          1.198071,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}