{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4690dde-e2f1-4e6b-97d6-246488c55653", "symbol": "002624", "name": "Perfect World Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.417, "architecture_energy": 76.039, "architecture_maturity": 47.461, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.01, "rotation_up": 26.6, "upward_expansion": 17.83, "deceleration": 40.65, "rotation_down": 56.95, "downward_expansion": 91.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.842667, 11.152, 12.635271, 14.147907 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.49, "trend_reference": 15.921232, "distance_from_trend": -0.278322, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.625775, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.089957, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.247892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.390127, "excess_performance": -0.397527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.278322, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.089957, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.405955, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.312479, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157812, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.390127, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.323655, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 329350616, "relative_activity": 1.04771, "balance": 0.323655, "dry_up": 1.16902, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115181, "annualized_volatility": 0.558352, "from_high_reference": -0.51478, "from_low_reference": 0.204403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.921232, "fair_value_reference": 12.625775, "structural_low": 9.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.017003, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.120833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.048815, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.012877, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.745554, "worst_return": -0.259817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060264, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.152556, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.623803, "worst_return": -0.322357, "sufficient": true }, { 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81.023902, "activity_lines": [ 10.621333, 11.218254, 12.929019, 14.44433 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.49, "volume": 329350616, "typical_volume": 314352801.7, "trend": 15.921232, "fair_value": 12.625775, "relative_strength": -31.247892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.417404, "energy": 76.03879, "activity_lines": [ 10.842667, 11.152, 12.635271, 14.147907 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }