{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a46dc7f7-dfbd-4e18-8818-d2f463dd828f", "symbol": "SPEUS", "name": "BNP PARIBAS Easy ICAV - BNP Paribas Easy S&P 500 Scored and Screened UCITS ETF UCITS ETF USD CAP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.519, "architecture_energy": 64.345, "architecture_maturity": 50.095, "architecture_confidence": 73.278, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.05, "rotation_up": 54.25, "upward_expansion": 81.29, "deceleration": 70.96, "rotation_down": 28.0, "downward_expansion": 10.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.307947, 19.209209, 19.013234, 18.638113 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.907801, "trend_reference": 18.217203, "distance_from_trend": 0.092802, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.83086, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.342323, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.587391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125097, "excess_performance": 0.071785, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092802, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036824, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.342323, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014314, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055874, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125097, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.290298, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 426639, "relative_activity": 1.614536, "balance": 3.290298, "dry_up": 1.412427, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017832, "annualized_volatility": 0.127495, "from_high_reference": -0.005768, "from_low_reference": 0.255664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.217203, "fair_value_reference": 14.83086, "structural_low": 16.2409, "invalidation": "A 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0.214433, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.089141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214433, "worst_return": 0.214433, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047274, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057916, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047728, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.085023, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015086, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065982, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008471, "active": false }, { 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14.774185, "relative_strength": 3.621081, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.263427, "energy": 42.429369, "activity_lines": [ 19.024733, 19.059189, 18.875557, 18.524196 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.907801, "volume": 426639, "typical_volume": 264248.7, "trend": 18.217203, "fair_value": 14.83086, "relative_strength": 5.587391, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.518584, "energy": 64.345401, "activity_lines": [ 19.307947, 19.209209, 19.013234, 18.638113 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }