{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a46fa98b-6a30-4f39-a687-c825cf3c9e74", "symbol": "PSGC", "name": "PSG Corporation Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.544, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.039, "architecture_energy": 42.8, "architecture_maturity": 31.691, "architecture_confidence": 69.364, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.46, "rotation_up": 25.77, "upward_expansion": 18.87, "deceleration": 60.92, "rotation_down": 40.64, "downward_expansion": 66.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.236667, 5.227273, 5.511048, 5.731441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.2, "trend_reference": 5.805333, "distance_from_trend": -0.104272, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.304237, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.577381, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.782433, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111111, "excess_performance": -0.081214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104272, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.577381, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004626, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.267824, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012663, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 308500, "relative_activity": 0.685533, "balance": 0.544496, "dry_up": 1.000022, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063166, "annualized_volatility": 0.671285, "from_high_reference": -0.425541, "from_low_reference": 0.214953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.805333, "fair_value_reference": 12.304237, "structural_low": 4.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.016129, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.034012, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.413793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.042857, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.055631, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.362069, "worst_return": -0.38, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.146429, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.177765, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.086957, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { 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317100, "typical_volume": 567952.5, "trend": 5.740667, "fair_value": 12.716468, "relative_strength": -29.950767, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.603679, "energy": 61.896386, "activity_lines": [ 5.186667, 5.352182, 5.718714, 5.834172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.25, "volume": 955900, "typical_volume": 486735.0, "trend": 5.765, "fair_value": 12.579788, "relative_strength": -29.634859, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.789096, "energy": 43.474298, "activity_lines": [ 5.21, 5.295455, 5.645476, 5.802516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.25, "volume": 218600, "typical_volume": 453915.0, "trend": 5.786667, "fair_value": 12.441237, "relative_strength": -27.719513, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.140386, "energy": 48.039366, "activity_lines": [ 5.236667, 5.258182, 5.577905, 5.76929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2, "volume": 308500, "typical_volume": 450015.0, "trend": 5.805333, "fair_value": 12.304237, "relative_strength": -26.782433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.039468, "energy": 42.800017, "activity_lines": [ 5.236667, 5.227273, 5.511048, 5.731441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }