{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a476bf49-d197-4710-b0e2-785524073e1e", "symbol": "SRWG", "name": "UBS MSCI World Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hGBP dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.008, "architecture_energy": 56.751, "architecture_maturity": 86.179, "architecture_confidence": 60.884, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.36, "rotation_up": 47.86, "upward_expansion": 76.1, "deceleration": 71.45, "rotation_down": 29.46, "downward_expansion": 14.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 2011.493333, 2009.937273, 1977.961196, 1935.147637 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2065.0, "trend_reference": 1891.891666, "distance_from_trend": 0.0915, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1630.786027, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.266261, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.227913, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126077, "excess_performance": 0.074842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0915, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035855, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.266261, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045763, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032279, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010427, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126077, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.399915, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1950, "relative_activity": 0.481946, "balance": 1.399915, "dry_up": 0.441042, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021004, "annualized_volatility": 0.140014, "from_high_reference": -0.000484, "from_low_reference": 0.230632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1891.891666, "fair_value_reference": 1630.786027, "structural_low": 1678.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.00681, "positive_rate": 0.59375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.001196, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.052462, "worst_return": -0.068605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.031421, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.002448, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.100007, "worst_return": -0.088774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.066327, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.024863, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.117528, "worst_return": -0.194704, "sufficient": true }, { 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43.621908, "activity_lines": [ 1990.566667, 1997.21091, 1963.348101, 1923.555486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2065.0, "volume": 1950, "typical_volume": 4046.1, "trend": 1891.891666, "fair_value": 1630.786027, "relative_strength": 3.227913, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.008237, "energy": 56.751354, "activity_lines": [ 2011.493333, 2009.937273, 1977.961196, 1935.147637 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }