{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4785cac-083d-4c78-b211-e5dbc4581ea8", "symbol": "CASP", "name": "Caspian Sunrise plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.59, "architecture_energy": 47.497, "architecture_maturity": 29.142, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.69, "rotation_up": 21.95, "upward_expansion": 8.06, "deceleration": 45.43, "rotation_down": 53.0, "downward_expansion": 81.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.019, 0.0192, 0.020286, 0.020971 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.019, "trend_reference": 0.022167, "distance_from_trend": -0.142857, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.027837, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.317444, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.862873, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.283019, "excess_performance": -0.334254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082759, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.317444, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.228629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151994, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283019, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.318024, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.318024, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099028, "annualized_volatility": 0.282124, "from_high_reference": -0.427711, "from_low_reference": 0.100811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.022167, "fair_value_reference": 0.027837, "structural_low": 0.01726, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.032043, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.924477, "worst_return": -0.246753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.044118, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.092205, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.409838, "worst_return": -0.241935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.11299, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.145006, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.149267, "worst_return": -0.38961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.223881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.188679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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"volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2358081.45, "trend": 0.0228, "fair_value": 0.027971, "relative_strength": -22.498265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.634363, "energy": 61.736467, "activity_lines": [ 0.019033, 0.019609, 0.02071, 0.021434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.019, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2088427.2, "trend": 0.022383, "fair_value": 0.027897, "relative_strength": -23.035309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.623204, "energy": 56.491357, "activity_lines": [ 0.019, 0.019373, 0.02049, 0.021189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.019, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2000686.3, "trend": 0.022167, "fair_value": 0.027837, "relative_strength": -22.862873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.58998, "energy": 47.496758, "activity_lines": [ 0.019, 0.0192, 0.020286, 0.020971 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }