{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4799fb7-201a-4ca6-bb62-7f91fcddbc0a", "symbol": "AT1", "name": "Aroundtown SA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.442, "architecture_energy": 66.274, "architecture_maturity": 48.109, "architecture_confidence": 92.333, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.28, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 14.65, "deceleration": 38.63, "rotation_down": 65.59, "downward_expansion": 87.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.166267, 2.20658, 2.272452, 2.337942 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.196, "trend_reference": 2.443694, "distance_from_trend": -0.101361, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.488076, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.11739, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.185223, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.216274, "excess_performance": -0.280914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101361, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.11739, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251852, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053179, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.216274, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.730033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6932147, "relative_activity": 0.552583, "balance": 0.730033, "dry_up": 0.887545, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061321, "annualized_volatility": 0.431001, "from_high_reference": -0.376844, "from_low_reference": 0.061896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.443694, "fair_value_reference": 2.488076, "structural_low": 2.068, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.048387, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.05462, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.312295, "worst_return": -0.243397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.106185, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.039384, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.865658, "worst_return": -0.35616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.105991, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.100261, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.695211, "worst_return": -0.550118, "sufficient": true }, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.122, "volume": 15546310, "typical_volume": 14873108.35, "trend": 2.494494, "fair_value": 2.474201, "relative_strength": -25.2674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.94573, "energy": 52.892954, "activity_lines": [ 2.233161, 2.270669, 2.322035, 2.398657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.132, "volume": 12576325, "typical_volume": 14221341.2, "trend": 2.478761, "fair_value": 2.478685, "relative_strength": -25.158377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.111071, "energy": 66.141393, "activity_lines": [ 2.190533, 2.239273, 2.30026, 2.375271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.168, "volume": 9482210, "typical_volume": 13504039.9, "trend": 2.463827, "fair_value": 2.483335, "relative_strength": -24.850407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.974872, "energy": 68.991628, "activity_lines": [ 2.1684, 2.217617, 2.284637, 2.355222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.196, "volume": 6932147, "typical_volume": 12544995.25, "trend": 2.443694, "fair_value": 2.488076, "relative_strength": -25.185223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.442494, "energy": 66.274364, "activity_lines": [ 2.166267, 2.20658, 2.272452, 2.337942 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }