{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a47a0e60-106d-4865-86ae-05aef859c836", "symbol": "T10G", "name": "UBS BBG TIPS 10+ UCITS ETF hGBP dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.12, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.767, "architecture_energy": 80.364, "architecture_maturity": 8.533, "architecture_confidence": 76.179, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.3, "rotation_up": 8.37, "upward_expansion": 18.46, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 81.86, "downward_expansion": 96.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 825.76, 834.820909, 841.003812, 844.576156 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 824.35, "trend_reference": 851.302135, "distance_from_trend": -0.03166, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 897.750718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.05801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056906, "excess_performance": -0.108141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03166, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013826, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081761, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04541, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056906, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.534722, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48527, "relative_activity": 0.588068, "balance": 1.534722, "dry_up": 1.176096, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014588, "annualized_volatility": 0.081417, "from_high_reference": -0.110137, "from_low_reference": 0.009985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 851.302135, "fair_value_reference": 897.750718, "structural_low": 816.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.005066, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.014084, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.08658, "worst_return": -0.116735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.002289, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.045576, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.027038, "worst_return": -0.149703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.076687, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.078364, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.015448, "worst_return": -0.165962, "sufficient": true }, 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"down", "direction": -73.485932, "energy": 68.610463, "activity_lines": [ 837.67, 843.809092, 845.710717, 848.890676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 816.45, "volume": 100199, "typical_volume": 88351.35, "trend": 852.973493, "fair_value": 898.681293, "relative_strength": -12.993408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.396326, "energy": 84.179351, "activity_lines": [ 828.923333, 838.406364, 842.915716, 846.422833 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 824.35, "volume": 48527, "typical_volume": 82519.4, "trend": 851.302135, "fair_value": 897.750718, "relative_strength": -12.05801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.766757, "energy": 80.364344, "activity_lines": [ 825.76, 834.820909, 841.003812, 844.576156 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }