{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a47ce1a0-4386-486d-997b-0380891b95c7", "symbol": "SBI", "name": "Serabi Gold plc", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.577, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.4, "architecture_energy": 41.705, "architecture_maturity": 10.831, "architecture_confidence": 87.454, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.39, "rotation_up": 16.52, "upward_expansion": 10.18, "deceleration": 40.0, "rotation_down": 56.88, "downward_expansion": 81.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.258, 5.345262, 5.615832, 5.671109 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.96, "trend_reference": 5.75627, "distance_from_trend": 0.035393, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.877424, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.071297, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.826065, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.143954, "excess_performance": 0.023533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035393, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013235, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.071297, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.575098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008261, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231573, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143954, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.470818, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 256200, "relative_activity": 1.718598, "balance": 0.470818, "dry_up": 1.214992, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102466, "annualized_volatility": 0.639062, "from_high_reference": -0.131778, "from_low_reference": 0.752941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.75627, "fair_value_reference": 2.877424, "structural_low": 4.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.013202, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.007369, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.325581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.119749, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.105927, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.17265, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.213855, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.369565, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107266, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02518, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.275194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.453172, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.01121, "energy": 56.147195, "activity_lines": [ 5.389754, 5.617089, 5.769186, 5.794259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.85, "volume": 173400, "typical_volume": 164170.0, "trend": 5.80827, "fair_value": 2.814796, "relative_strength": -16.688127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.050602, "energy": 68.439585, "activity_lines": [ 5.19, 5.448566, 5.68229, 5.730779 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.69, "volume": 189600, "typical_volume": 166140.0, "trend": 5.766604, "fair_value": 2.842039, "relative_strength": -19.115632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.911545, "energy": 77.005003, "activity_lines": [ 4.992, 5.270439, 5.586395, 5.658632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.96, "volume": 256200, "typical_volume": 149075.0, "trend": 5.75627, "fair_value": 2.877424, "relative_strength": -0.826065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.399931, "energy": 41.70454, "activity_lines": [ 5.258, 5.345262, 5.615832, 5.671109 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }