{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4820bcb-e375-484b-b3e3-ba1e484a9c2f", "symbol": "CRC", "name": "Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.87, "architecture_energy": 71.202, "architecture_maturity": 51.587, "architecture_confidence": 76.975, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 72.01, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 66.11, "rotation_down": 13.68, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.123334, 24.257273, 22.661218, 21.564842 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.25, "trend_reference": 20.353133, "distance_from_trend": 0.289728, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.242756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039902, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.965908, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.391293, "excess_performance": 0.198967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.289728, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105742, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039902, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.324093, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.159659, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.275084, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.391293, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.971389, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73969300, "relative_activity": 1.218835, "balance": 1.971389, "dry_up": 1.267936, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054506, "annualized_volatility": 0.369021, "from_high_reference": -0.054054, "from_low_reference": 0.686415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.353133, "fair_value_reference": 25.242756, "structural_low": 16.037244, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.007547, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.01598, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.238806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012318, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.049488, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.170886, "worst_return": -0.088235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.042937, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.056377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132911, "worst_return": -0.420498, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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68.092185, "energy": 87.307828, "activity_lines": [ 23.240001, 22.407273, 20.94145, 20.231176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 71816400, "typical_volume": 66064140.0, "trend": 19.505283, "fair_value": 25.433437, "relative_strength": 0.980944, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.261856, "energy": 81.423896, "activity_lines": [ 23.326668, 22.694546, 21.257078, 20.48292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.0, "volume": 69933800, "typical_volume": 63294195.0, "trend": 19.69964, "fair_value": 25.34467, "relative_strength": 0.062263, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.634978, "energy": 62.441584, "activity_lines": [ 23.213334, 22.865455, 21.535722, 20.708385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.75, "volume": 92077300, "typical_volume": 62098560.0, "trend": 20.025286, "fair_value": 25.295316, "relative_strength": 17.494786, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.481073, "energy": 72.940974, "activity_lines": [ 24.363334, 23.665455, 22.143743, 21.163247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.25, "volume": 73969300, "typical_volume": 60688550.0, "trend": 20.353133, "fair_value": 25.242756, "relative_strength": 15.965908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.870195, "energy": 71.202132, "activity_lines": [ 25.123334, 24.257273, 22.661218, 21.564842 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }