{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a483b0aa-6820-4ba3-905c-17b2c8a66105", "symbol": "40N", "name": "Versalink Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.972, "architecture_energy": 68.032, "architecture_maturity": 64.164, "architecture_confidence": 90.577, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.99, "rotation_up": 25.27, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.63, "rotation_down": 58.51, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.027509, 0.037367, 0.043282 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.049167, "distance_from_trend": -0.491525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.047788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.476861, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.900116, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.537037, "excess_performance": -0.691872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.491525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057508, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.476861, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.748155, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.559001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.69096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.537037, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113846, "annualized_volatility": 1.02144, "from_high_reference": -0.657534, "from_low_reference": 0.136364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.049167, "fair_value_reference": 0.047788, "structural_low": 0.025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.173913, "median_excess_return": 0.015862, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.090906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.067388, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.048044, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.913095, "worst_return": -0.292319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.1375, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.061887, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.181805, "worst_return": -0.177212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.223255, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.042251, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.449388, "worst_return": -0.303786, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.160714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156863, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.372093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.237288, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.244444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation 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"mixed", "direction": -71.636868, "energy": 90.032998, "activity_lines": [ 0.040333, 0.046364, 0.052548, 0.05354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4240.0, "trend": 0.0525, "fair_value": 0.048577, "relative_strength": -54.940253, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -98.390979, "energy": 99.431974, "activity_lines": [ 0.0342, 0.041582, 0.049667, 0.051723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4240.0, "trend": 0.051833, "fair_value": 0.048417, "relative_strength": -56.164056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.865483, "energy": 98.130096, "activity_lines": [ 0.0296, 0.037473, 0.046924, 0.049948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4240.0, "trend": 0.051167, "fair_value": 0.048244, "relative_strength": -55.861883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.297622, "energy": 93.442393, "activity_lines": [ 0.026533, 0.034036, 0.044319, 0.048217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2465.0, "trend": 0.0505, "fair_value": 0.048096, "relative_strength": -56.022997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.332708, "energy": 88.565072, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.031273, 0.041852, 0.046529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2420.0, "trend": 0.049833, "fair_value": 0.047942, "relative_strength": -55.84342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.328305, "energy": 87.577357, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.029182, 0.039514, 0.044884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2410.0, "trend": 0.049167, "fair_value": 0.047788, "relative_strength": -55.900116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.972179, "energy": 68.032412, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.027509, 0.037367, 0.043282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }