{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a485d13a-9c8f-4f33-a946-5e8a51a50010", "symbol": "FLBR", "name": "FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ETF TR FTSE BRAZIL ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.942, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.62, "architecture_energy": 20.434, "architecture_maturity": 18.078, "architecture_confidence": 64.407, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.86, "rotation_up": 31.65, "upward_expansion": 20.32, "deceleration": 40.94, "rotation_down": 27.37, "downward_expansion": 56.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.3, 22.059299, 22.359759, 22.616165 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.99, "trend_reference": 22.74899, "distance_from_trend": -0.033364, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.429048, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261687, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.68599, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040157, "excess_performance": -0.165782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033364, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261687, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177492, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05686, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176465, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542079, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 299430, "relative_activity": 0.26234, "balance": 0.542079, "dry_up": 0.486109, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046318, "annualized_volatility": 0.26606, "from_high_reference": -0.162254, "from_low_reference": 0.359642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.74899, "fair_value_reference": 17.429048, "structural_low": 20.916731, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.01717, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.019505, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.126087, "worst_return": -0.137997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.028492, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065322, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.213453, "worst_return": -0.114241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025259, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.165343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202901, "worst_return": -0.114289, 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-27.093479, "energy": 55.488121, "activity_lines": [ 21.468484, 22.016919, 22.799655, 22.712034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.4, "volume": 326488, "typical_volume": 1449730.15, "trend": 22.229986, "fair_value": 17.23249, "relative_strength": -3.537758, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.728992, "energy": 48.981092, "activity_lines": [ 21.414096, 21.791106, 22.637704, 22.663972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.46, "volume": 338647, "typical_volume": 1360835.9, "trend": 22.336237, "fair_value": 17.273696, "relative_strength": -0.338744, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.110976, "energy": 30.731486, "activity_lines": [ 21.767112, 21.818037, 22.585706, 22.678811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.97, "volume": 469421, "typical_volume": 1278627.45, "trend": 22.448152, "fair_value": 17.309116, "relative_strength": -1.241199, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.761253, "energy": 18.445564, "activity_lines": [ 21.872353, 21.790513, 22.494564, 22.655183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.21, "volume": 768800, "typical_volume": 1210919.25, "trend": 22.557977, "fair_value": 17.344925, "relative_strength": 0.122006, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.839843, "energy": 11.39264, "activity_lines": [ 22.046, 21.849631, 22.43628, 22.639818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.88, "volume": 681692, "typical_volume": 1163985.4, "trend": 22.678657, "fair_value": 17.389144, "relative_strength": 1.708983, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.061908, "energy": 21.582625, "activity_lines": [ 22.364667, 22.038132, 22.442662, 22.660594 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.99, "volume": 299430, "typical_volume": 1141382.3, "trend": 22.74899, "fair_value": 17.429048, "relative_strength": -5.68599, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.620246, "energy": 20.434457, "activity_lines": [ 22.3, 22.059299, 22.359759, 22.616165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }