{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4874c8b-c40b-4006-89ff-5a32b6e1db35", "symbol": "ALKT", "name": "Alkami Technology Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.319, "architecture_energy": 43.786, "architecture_maturity": 21.108, "architecture_confidence": 46.645, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.66, "rotation_up": 61.63, "upward_expansion": 57.84, "deceleration": 23.08, "rotation_down": 22.28, "downward_expansion": 18.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.324667, 17.740182, 17.261762, 17.148527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.73, "trend_reference": 17.3245, "distance_from_trend": 0.13885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.069968, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213003, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.439143, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.131956, "excess_performance": -0.055497, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.13885, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081586, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213003, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066597, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205505, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131956, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.369322, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8514270, "relative_activity": 1.044939, "balance": 1.369322, "dry_up": 0.839058, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104967, "annualized_volatility": 0.560686, "from_high_reference": -0.26627, "from_low_reference": 0.411302 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.3245, "fair_value_reference": 25.069968, "structural_low": 13.98, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.073761, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.05431, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.137176, "worst_return": -0.331266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.171701, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.249121, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.009934, "worst_return": -0.303209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.185352, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.301671, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.099095, "worst_return": -0.285149, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.122476, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.368967, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.195364, "worst_return": -0.440315, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069171, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046504, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12297, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060264, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073761, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188825, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105056, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.106881, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068981, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.207173, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.158343, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137176, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.73, "volume": 918037, "typical_volume": 1319780.95, "trend": 14.687333, "fair_value": 19.208211, "relative_strength": -6.861603, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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16.993818, 16.852143, 17.022129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.79, "volume": 5017873, "typical_volume": 8349015.0, "trend": 17.5565, "fair_value": 25.028109, "relative_strength": -23.032961, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.571751, "energy": 16.325581, "activity_lines": [ 17.473333, 16.991273, 16.850952, 16.959022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.17, "volume": 8192989, "typical_volume": 8026864.25, "trend": 17.406167, "fair_value": 25.040994, "relative_strength": -16.623003, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.887256, "energy": 22.397115, "activity_lines": [ 17.697333, 17.236364, 16.982476, 16.998602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.73, "volume": 8514270, "typical_volume": 8148098.65, "trend": 17.3245, "fair_value": 25.069968, "relative_strength": -13.439143, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.318809, "energy": 43.78612, "activity_lines": [ 18.324667, 17.740182, 17.261762, 17.148527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }