{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a48b8aec-a360-4eac-9f22-adfb9fd16536", "symbol": "XS6R", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe Utilities Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.579, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.716, "architecture_energy": 21.097, "architecture_maturity": 25.719, "architecture_confidence": 51.503, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.93, "rotation_up": 40.48, "upward_expansion": 62.43, "deceleration": 61.78, "rotation_down": 23.02, "downward_expansion": 14.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 18147.4, 18174.763636, 18069.852381, 18005.625806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18066.0, "trend_reference": 17824.966667, "distance_from_trend": 0.013522, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13472.978716, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.070759, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.047851, "excess_performance": -0.003384, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013522, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045739, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340906, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064791, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047851, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.466311, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1401, "relative_activity": 0.887327, "balance": 1.466311, "dry_up": 1.281113, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026464, "annualized_volatility": 0.211676, "from_high_reference": -0.040981, "from_low_reference": 0.347807 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17824.966667, "fair_value_reference": 13472.978716, "structural_low": 16488.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.00386, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.002761, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.082715, "worst_return": -0.077844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.037739, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.014778, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.088815, "worst_return": -0.06646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011591, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028807, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.176652, "worst_return": -0.070042, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.123511, "energy": 50.358109, "activity_lines": [ 18198.933333, 18034.945455, 17986.304762, 17865.365591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18323.0, "volume": 3192, "typical_volume": 2028.25, "trend": 17615.933333, "fair_value": 13334.933844, "relative_strength": 4.616848, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.474413, "energy": 56.346898, "activity_lines": [ 18259.466667, 18111.345455, 18019.057143, 17916.423656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18465.0, "volume": 2487, "typical_volume": 1922.75, "trend": 17708.0, "fair_value": 13381.010767, "relative_strength": 3.915335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.355741, "energy": 56.895216, "activity_lines": [ 18341.533333, 18202.418182, 18067.314286, 17971.202151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17945.0, "volume": 1011, "typical_volume": 1772.4, "trend": 17769.433333, "fair_value": 13426.632562, "relative_strength": -0.329257, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.88955, "energy": 26.780847, "activity_lines": [ 18213.8, 18178.018182, 18062.480952, 17986.492473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18066.0, "volume": 1401, "typical_volume": 1578.9, "trend": 17824.966667, "fair_value": 13472.978716, "relative_strength": -0.070759, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.715526, "energy": 21.096744, "activity_lines": [ 18147.4, 18174.763636, 18069.852381, 18005.625806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }