{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4902d79-6776-4ac8-9b4b-9aaeeba38558", "symbol": "MGRW", "name": "Mackenzie Growth Allocation ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.057, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.532, "architecture_energy": 58.517, "architecture_maturity": 86.857, "architecture_confidence": 63.774, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.4, "rotation_up": 51.83, "upward_expansion": 78.85, "deceleration": 68.5, "rotation_down": 29.16, "downward_expansion": 14.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.751334, 36.695116, 36.229387, 35.648426 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.220001, "trend_reference": 34.989253, "distance_from_trend": 0.063755, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.617573, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.3006, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.366578, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.098329, "excess_performance": -0.022092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063755, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034371, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.3006, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019582, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098329, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.967419, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27500, "relative_activity": 3.509892, "balance": 1.967419, "dry_up": 1.668794, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016144, "annualized_volatility": 0.101733, "from_high_reference": -0.005545, "from_low_reference": 0.219899 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.989253, "fair_value_reference": 28.617573, "structural_low": 32.419998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.016077, "positive_rate": 0.717949, "directional_follow_through": 0.717949, "median_excess_return": -0.000404, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.050941, "worst_return": -0.025829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02505, "positive_rate": 0.923077, "directional_follow_through": 0.923077, "median_excess_return": -0.008204, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.094046, "worst_return": -0.000252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.103452, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005019, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.11404, "worst_return": 0.027317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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36.277478, 35.462028, 34.992492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.919998, "volume": 18100, "typical_volume": 6590.0, "trend": 34.558647, "fair_value": 28.245471, "relative_strength": -0.709988, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.15639, "energy": 84.907743, "activity_lines": [ 36.794868, 36.459421, 35.660653, 35.15347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.369999, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 5960.0, "trend": 34.666521, "fair_value": 28.336494, "relative_strength": -1.953226, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.37702, "energy": 64.030316, "activity_lines": [ 36.686666, 36.501546, 35.79502, 35.270331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.330002, "volume": 11800, "typical_volume": 6270.0, "trend": 34.769841, "fair_value": 28.426414, "relative_strength": -2.225341, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.65536, "energy": 58.270755, "activity_lines": [ 36.556, 36.513275, 35.917125, 35.377652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.630001, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 6550.0, "trend": 34.883162, "fair_value": 28.520314, "relative_strength": -0.894122, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.56554, "energy": 53.945182, "activity_lines": [ 36.562667, 36.559507, 36.053658, 35.497663 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.220001, "volume": 27500, "typical_volume": 7835.0, "trend": 34.989253, "fair_value": 28.617573, "relative_strength": -2.366578, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.532166, "energy": 58.517128, "activity_lines": [ 36.751334, 36.695116, 36.229387, 35.648426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }