{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a495c497-683e-49d7-9f2e-8585a989a6e3", "symbol": "EUSRI", "name": "Amundi MSCI Europe SRI Climate Paris Aligned - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.708, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.679, "architecture_energy": 56.527, "architecture_maturity": 64.008, "architecture_confidence": 48.414, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.69, "rotation_up": 48.64, "upward_expansion": 75.93, "deceleration": 68.96, "rotation_down": 28.9, "downward_expansion": 13.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.173333, 92.077273, 90.728667, 89.302473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 93.559998, "trend_reference": 87.975667, "distance_from_trend": 0.063476, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 83.019487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126964, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.048926, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.082244, "excess_performance": -0.088648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063476, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029561, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.126964, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057769, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028135, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082244, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.483262, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7064, "relative_activity": 0.716572, "balance": 0.483262, "dry_up": 0.458077, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017743, "annualized_volatility": 0.153211, "from_high_reference": -0.00224, "from_low_reference": 0.198258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.975667, "fair_value_reference": 83.019487, "structural_low": 78.080002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.003447, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009384, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.072388, "worst_return": -0.084346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.003501, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.048673, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.083518, "worst_return": -0.064832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.037054, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.043083, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.098656, "worst_return": -0.149205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.699482, "energy": 84.737945, "activity_lines": [ 92.408667, 91.319092, 89.159238, 88.150151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 91.519997, "volume": 5535, "typical_volume": 10973.95, "trend": 87.350333, "fair_value": 82.650833, "relative_strength": -6.654812, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.447825, "energy": 81.124427, "activity_lines": [ 92.227333, 91.543637, 89.549857, 88.434667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 91.099998, "volume": 2357, "typical_volume": 10678.65, "trend": 87.567333, "fair_value": 82.758654, "relative_strength": -6.621235, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.869474, "energy": 63.607727, "activity_lines": [ 91.874665, 91.612182, 89.886047, 88.676581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 91.480003, "volume": 3107, "typical_volume": 9782.8, "trend": 87.771334, "fair_value": 82.882692, "relative_strength": -6.64472, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.161114, "energy": 48.048496, "activity_lines": [ 91.674, 91.670728, 90.227572, 88.929011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.559998, "volume": 7064, "typical_volume": 9858.05, "trend": 87.975667, "fair_value": 83.019487, "relative_strength": -7.048926, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.679412, "energy": 56.52726, "activity_lines": [ 92.173333, 92.077273, 90.728667, 89.302473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }