{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a49745b5-1a9f-4e18-aa7c-c6068200c735", "symbol": "002363", "name": "Shandong Longji Machinery Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.764, "architecture_energy": 59.038, "architecture_maturity": 91.075, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 28.08, "upward_expansion": 10.86, "deceleration": 60.82, "rotation_down": 52.79, "downward_expansion": 84.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.198, 6.239455, 6.740818, 7.193024 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.37, "trend_reference": 7.869415, "distance_from_trend": -0.190537, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.267387, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.714251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.297685, "excess_performance": -0.305084, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190537, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10535, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123481, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291506, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074421, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.297685, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.248194, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24474020, "relative_activity": 0.775667, "balance": 0.248194, "dry_up": 0.905053, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078466, "annualized_volatility": 0.35439, "from_high_reference": -0.438272, "from_low_reference": 0.115587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.869415, "fair_value_reference": 7.267387, "structural_low": 5.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.002653, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020132, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.18239, "worst_return": -0.157143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019345, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.026326, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.229006, "worst_return": -0.24493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.152516, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.107277, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.239616, "worst_return": -0.091283, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.208667, 6.470785, 7.096139, 7.574094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.86, "volume": 34235595, "typical_volume": 34743254.15, "trend": 8.162749, "fair_value": 7.276978, "relative_strength": -29.249907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.139624, "energy": 70.154266, "activity_lines": [ 6.078667, 6.30124, 6.934841, 7.419895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.27, "volume": 23949270, "typical_volume": 32654799.55, "trend": 7.993749, "fair_value": 7.27124, "relative_strength": -22.551344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.481148, "energy": 64.27686, "activity_lines": [ 6.13, 6.247799, 6.82683, 7.297782 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.37, "volume": 24474020, "typical_volume": 31552245.2, "trend": 7.869415, "fair_value": 7.267387, "relative_strength": -24.714251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.764454, "energy": 59.03764, "activity_lines": [ 6.198, 6.239455, 6.740818, 7.193024 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }