{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a498e318-5173-4ccb-9bc6-937e44330316",
    "symbol": "IJPA",
    "name": "iShares Core MSCI Japan IMI UCITS ETF USD (Acc)",
    "exchange": "AMS",
    "country": "NL",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AEX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 62.517,
    "architecture_energy": 36.975,
    "architecture_maturity": 58.519,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.407,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 21.8,
        "rotation_up": 40.43,
        "upward_expansion": 66.33,
        "deceleration": 85.43,
        "rotation_down": 26.87,
        "downward_expansion": 16.33
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        70.215999,
        70.264909,
        69.178595,
        67.937494
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 72.089996,
    "trend_reference": 66.439166,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.085053,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 54.216191,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329677,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.23581,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.120976,
    "excess_performance": 0.004314,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.085053,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05837,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.329677,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045735,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022358,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.045181,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.120976,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.692268,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 69174,
      "relative_activity": 1.438109,
      "balance": 1.692268,
      "dry_up": 1.447683,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.030208,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.189353,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000416,
      "from_low_reference": 0.305978
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 66.439166,
      "fair_value_reference": 54.216191,
      "structural_low": 59.744999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.01639,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001441,
        "regime_survival": 0.533333,
        "best_return": 0.082467,
        "worst_return": -0.042516,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.014661,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": 0.045943,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.156004,
        "worst_return": -0.069629,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.004563,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027634,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.157779,
        "worst_return": -0.090095,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.02192,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.063153,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.260649,
        "worst_return": -0.129379,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.003398,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010823,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.033569,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007117,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.074221,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013554,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001417,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.06447,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.021412,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.052141,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.031377,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
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        "return": 0.042405,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.06643,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "typical_volume": 37785.85,
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        "typical_volume": 81170.25,
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        "fair_value": 51.953595,
        "relative_strength": 4.026558,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 37.538971,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "fair_value": 52.105197,
        "relative_strength": 6.753922,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 66.471664,
        "energy": 53.20136,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 87007.6,
        "trend": 62.466526,
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        "relative_strength": 7.954586,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.727783,
        "energy": 60.007645,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 67.790001,
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        "typical_volume": 89084.25,
        "trend": 62.470499,
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        "relative_strength": 4.745698,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 68.907616,
        "energy": 66.629723,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 68.279999,
        "volume": 55494,
        "typical_volume": 81106.25,
        "trend": 62.774999,
        "fair_value": 52.561543,
        "relative_strength": 6.255765,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 71.512979,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 68.580002,
        "volume": 14618,
        "typical_volume": 70326.25,
        "trend": 63.111833,
        "fair_value": 52.711736,
        "relative_strength": 5.796562,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.685887,
        "energy": 75.301816,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 68.68,
        "volume": 13586,
        "typical_volume": 64984.7,
        "trend": 63.420833,
        "fair_value": 52.861864,
        "relative_strength": 1.807157,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 69.121844,
        "energy": 73.847835,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": 6.365433,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 54284.6,
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        "fair_value": 53.210261,
        "relative_strength": 5.867522,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.983174,
        "energy": 81.127541,
        "activity_lines": [
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          65.982828
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 71.370003,
        "volume": 5410,
        "typical_volume": 46400.5,
        "trend": 64.684,
        "fair_value": 53.386287,
        "relative_strength": 4.72123,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 86.585521,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 71.349998,
        "volume": 77562,
        "typical_volume": 47344.25,
        "trend": 65.100666,
        "fair_value": 53.564652,
        "relative_strength": 4.265051,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.93717,
        "energy": 84.226957,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 68.160004,
        "volume": 85947,
        "typical_volume": 46678.8,
        "trend": 65.410666,
        "fair_value": 53.720197,
        "relative_strength": -1.290618,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.160255,
        "energy": 51.761636,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.201335,
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          68.209191,
          67.068183
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 69.559998,
        "volume": 60897,
        "typical_volume": 46367.95,
        "trend": 65.7705,
        "fair_value": 53.874877,
        "relative_strength": 0.758664,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.088323,
        "energy": 40.987993,
        "activity_lines": [
          69.846667,
          69.925637,
          68.495191,
          67.335882
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 69.110001,
        "volume": 62520,
        "typical_volume": 46458.05,
        "trend": 66.1045,
        "fair_value": 54.035614,
        "relative_strength": -0.812899,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.399407,
        "energy": 29.191328,
        "activity_lines": [
          69.489334,
          69.836364,
          68.710286,
          67.551333
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 72.089996,
        "volume": 69174,
        "typical_volume": 48100.65,
        "trend": 66.439166,
        "fair_value": 54.216191,
        "relative_strength": 2.23581,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.517098,
        "energy": 36.974648,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.215999,
          70.264909,
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          67.937494
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}