{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a49aaab2-93b4-4a9f-b9c3-eef95aa1450f", "symbol": "ARPT", "name": "Airport City Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.723, "architecture_energy": 67.233, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.808, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 29.96, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.95, "rotation_down": 53.2, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.358, 54.453273, 1465.274429, 2522.078129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 52.46, "trend_reference": 3773.589, "distance_from_trend": -0.986098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5418.619679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.990319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.039372, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.991092, "excess_performance": -1.019992, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.986098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.356884, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.990319, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.988903, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.990394, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.719254, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.991092, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.381105, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2404446, "relative_activity": 3.950911, "balance": 0.381105, "dry_up": 2.274012, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 9.620223, "annualized_volatility": 6.377289, "from_high_reference": -0.992169, "from_low_reference": 0.018641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3773.589, "fair_value_reference": 5418.619679, "structural_low": 51.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.013655, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.005243, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.100562, "worst_return": -0.990316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.079261, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013061, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.153049, "worst_return": -0.99078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.086194, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.053607, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146612, "worst_return": -0.077132, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.325697, "energy": 88.542614, "activity_lines": [ 54.578, 1022.058545, 2756.844381, 3619.491226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.55, "volume": 1520532, "typical_volume": 509766.95, "trend": 4409.968667, "fair_value": 5522.974744, "relative_strength": -99.075605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.308206, "energy": 85.356104, "activity_lines": [ 54.687333, 631.476545, 2394.108619, 3324.551419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.05, "volume": 1049621, "typical_volume": 536575.3, "trend": 4201.237, "fair_value": 5489.359679, "relative_strength": -99.049308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.889195, "energy": 67.83119, "activity_lines": [ 55.322667, 344.520909, 2057.446429, 3043.653441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.1, "volume": 561076, "typical_volume": 532498.8, "trend": 3990.740333, "fair_value": 5454.8475, "relative_strength": -99.014707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.754084, "energy": 67.476761, "activity_lines": [ 55.372, 152.137091, 1748.522095, 2776.160731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.46, "volume": 2404446, "typical_volume": 608580.15, "trend": 3773.589, "fair_value": 5418.619679, "relative_strength": -99.039372, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.723157, "energy": 67.232542, "activity_lines": [ 54.358, 54.453273, 1465.274429, 2522.078129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }