{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a49e0bec-4319-4fe4-ad8e-3a430ac4e5d5", "symbol": "2350", "name": "Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.866, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.625, "architecture_energy": 42.647, "architecture_maturity": 6.732, "architecture_confidence": 66.973, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.56, "rotation_up": 16.2, "upward_expansion": 22.62, "deceleration": 53.17, "rotation_down": 64.66, "downward_expansion": 52.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.095333, 5.162182, 5.353143, 5.333032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.2, "trend_reference": 5.248, "distance_from_trend": -0.009146, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.289423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.286638, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.149635, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125541, "excess_performance": 0.157371, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009146, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010591, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.286638, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01267, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001496, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118643, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125541, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687349, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43260594, "relative_activity": 1.20399, "balance": 0.687349, "dry_up": 0.685753, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051923, "annualized_volatility": 0.382789, "from_high_reference": -0.188768, "from_low_reference": 0.155556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.248, "fair_value_reference": 7.289423, "structural_low": 4.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.012941, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.026944, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.144989, "worst_return": -0.14382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006711, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.28, "worst_return": -0.117977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.112042, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.087653, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.151648, "worst_return": -0.255372, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021559, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010695, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126582, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115456, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034722, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031746, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 12.26, "volume": 19401306, "typical_volume": 3219868.25, "trend": 12.917333, "fair_value": 15.1825, "relative_strength": -8.619844, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.710174, "energy": 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"relative_strength": -0.586036, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.178855, "energy": 34.29904, "activity_lines": [ 5.164, 5.345455, 5.444, 5.359441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.04, "volume": 17398230, "typical_volume": 37119784.95, "trend": 5.219333, "fair_value": 7.383013, "relative_strength": -2.236716, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.393939, "energy": 48.217205, "activity_lines": [ 5.104667, 5.261091, 5.410476, 5.348925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.0, "volume": 16441635, "typical_volume": 34350889.85, "trend": 5.227, "fair_value": 7.335705, "relative_strength": -1.282767, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.149956, "energy": 59.759331, "activity_lines": [ 5.058667, 5.186182, 5.372476, 5.334774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2, "volume": 43260594, "typical_volume": 35931037.2, "trend": 5.248, "fair_value": 7.289423, "relative_strength": 0.149635, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.624714, "energy": 42.646821, "activity_lines": [ 5.095333, 5.162182, 5.353143, 5.333032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }