{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a49fcb47-9131-4c47-9403-698ffc861f89", "symbol": "ADANIPORTS", "name": "Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.728, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.59, "architecture_energy": 26.962, "architecture_maturity": 60.777, "architecture_confidence": 90.215, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.18, "rotation_up": 24.22, "upward_expansion": 59.44, "deceleration": 88.29, "rotation_down": 36.5, "downward_expansion": 23.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 1737.420011, 1776.064446, 1763.75855, 1700.005321 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1693.5, "trend_reference": 1617.141597, "distance_from_trend": 0.047218, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1328.58887, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274661, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.458085, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.092087, "excess_performance": 0.135797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047218, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067319, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274661, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.104581, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151449, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092087, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.789295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8739470, "relative_activity": 0.831668, "balance": 0.789295, "dry_up": 1.009632, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042433, "annualized_volatility": 0.243516, "from_high_reference": -0.104489, "from_low_reference": 0.312282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1617.141597, "fair_value_reference": 1328.58887, "structural_low": 1293.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007196, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002159, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.291559, "worst_return": -0.381156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.146374, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.078943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.465107, "worst_return": -0.127115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.17034, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.115733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.692996, "worst_return": -0.108423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068208, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055239, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-16", 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48.455241, "activity_lines": [ 1814.653345, 1818.017944, 1760.530911, 1688.405957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1696.5, "volume": 19230841, "typical_volume": 10784320.7, "trend": 1608.554932, "fair_value": 1322.821343, "relative_strength": 12.004465, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.122355, "energy": 28.470035, "activity_lines": [ 1773.220011, 1796.560278, 1763.081159, 1694.524994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1693.5, "volume": 8739470, "typical_volume": 10508362.15, "trend": 1617.141597, "fair_value": 1328.58887, "relative_strength": 10.458085, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.589913, "energy": 26.962202, "activity_lines": [ 1737.420011, 1776.064446, 1763.75855, 1700.005321 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }