{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4a28197-2a9a-4b66-a139-0b1f740ebb24", "symbol": "601669", "name": "Power Construction Corporation of China, Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.757, "architecture_energy": 42.263, "architecture_maturity": 68.217, "architecture_confidence": 61.026, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.65, "rotation_up": 27.06, "upward_expansion": 19.17, "deceleration": 66.54, "rotation_down": 38.61, "downward_expansion": 66.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.796, 4.76566, 4.99654, 5.21012 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.81, "trend_reference": 5.431674, "distance_from_trend": -0.114453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.175928, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070698, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.517684, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.150177, "excess_performance": -0.106973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038472, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070698, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182939, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087742, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150177, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.524326, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 559753464, "relative_activity": 0.642626, "balance": 0.524326, "dry_up": 0.726069, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05812, "annualized_volatility": 0.457555, "from_high_reference": -0.331015, "from_low_reference": 0.058114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.431674, "fair_value_reference": 5.175928, "structural_low": 4.545824, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.012295, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.001337, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.140865, "worst_return": -0.135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002789, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006017, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.286515, "worst_return": -0.097976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.034868, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031898, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.21447, "worst_return": -0.228355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 4.69207, 4.887312, 5.230735, 5.384853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.71, "volume": 579054337, "typical_volume": 1398953540.95, "trend": 5.474007, "fair_value": 5.187512, "relative_strength": -12.192047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.543594, "energy": 78.451738, "activity_lines": [ 4.692259, 4.814944, 5.155305, 5.334379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.75, "volume": 810078983, "typical_volume": 1341745059.8, "trend": 5.457341, "fair_value": 5.183342, "relative_strength": -12.38124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.015743, "energy": 59.158587, "activity_lines": [ 4.705916, 4.770577, 5.088543, 5.287669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.89, "volume": 580853007, "typical_volume": 1085333244.65, "trend": 5.444674, "fair_value": 5.179648, "relative_strength": -9.324578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.104468, "energy": 47.220228, "activity_lines": [ 4.771527, 4.770027, 5.040875, 5.251066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.81, "volume": 559753464, "typical_volume": 871040151.45, "trend": 5.431674, "fair_value": 5.175928, "relative_strength": -12.517684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.757347, "energy": 42.262964, "activity_lines": [ 4.796, 4.76566, 4.99654, 5.21012 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }