{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4a5bcee-1b5b-4bdc-8a68-37c1a66f128c", "symbol": "FAS", "name": "Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.907, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.239, "architecture_energy": 92.71, "architecture_maturity": 20.967, "architecture_confidence": 79.045, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.65, "rotation_up": 86.22, "upward_expansion": 99.77, "deceleration": 39.08, "rotation_down": 8.99, "downward_expansion": 21.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 2991.211979, 2880.926562, 2667.45703, 2556.190533 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 3075.0, "trend_reference": 2485.673755, "distance_from_trend": 0.237089, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2408.39032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276786, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.958957, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.11084, "excess_performance": 0.165507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.237089, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276786, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.29708, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08959, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.386864, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11084, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.914494, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1025, "relative_activity": 0.220231, "balance": 1.914494, "dry_up": 1.71168, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045814, "annualized_volatility": 0.443778, "from_high_reference": -0.083026, "from_low_reference": 0.574944 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2485.673755, "fair_value_reference": 2408.39032, "structural_low": 1952.449951, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.031412, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.027103, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.313291, "worst_return": -0.3086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016274, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.027929, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.370743, "worst_return": -0.391366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039216, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.104012, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.813646, "worst_return": -0.289513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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84.255339, "activity_lines": [ 2825.102523, 2668.841957, 2499.669538, 2458.138195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2930.0, "volume": 5207, "typical_volume": 4217.15, "trend": 2491.96556, "fair_value": 2384.506545, "relative_strength": 4.122754, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.439873, "energy": 82.567927, "activity_lines": [ 2882.88265, 2739.207218, 2552.323999, 2485.830634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2996.939941, "volume": 16774, "typical_volume": 4686.3, "trend": 2489.395947, "fair_value": 2396.169697, "relative_strength": 5.937742, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.973727, "energy": 92.159653, "activity_lines": [ 2936.701969, 2809.070588, 2608.420093, 2518.409626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3075.0, "volume": 1025, "typical_volume": 4654.2, "trend": 2485.673755, "fair_value": 2408.39032, "relative_strength": 8.958957, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.239255, "energy": 92.7096, "activity_lines": [ 2991.211979, 2880.926562, 2667.45703, 2556.190533 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }