{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4a69599-456b-4a93-8e1b-3fcdd1e41881", "symbol": "219900", "name": "KINDEX China Mainland Leverage CSI300 ETF (Synth)", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.157, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.572, "architecture_energy": 56.484, "architecture_maturity": 10.292, "architecture_confidence": 83.854, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.33, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 24.32, "deceleration": 53.04, "rotation_down": 72.5, "downward_expansion": 51.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 4735.333333, 5084.272727, 5269.452381, 5206.849462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4575.0, "trend_reference": 5104.0, "distance_from_trend": -0.103644, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3390.880319, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349207, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.82681, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.029692, "excess_performance": -0.259521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103644, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05165, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349207, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326715, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0725, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.59391, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10640, "relative_activity": 0.466253, "balance": 1.59391, "dry_up": 0.679736, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093737, "annualized_volatility": 0.286289, "from_high_reference": -0.260905, "from_low_reference": 0.421194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5104.0, "fair_value_reference": 3390.880319, "structural_low": 4210.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.091678, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053368, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.044728, "worst_return": -0.185464, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.151417, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.140562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.431767, "worst_return": -0.256757, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.114806, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.129847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.46085, "worst_return": -0.234824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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5471.619048, 5300.675269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5055.0, "volume": 13756, "typical_volume": 31948.9, "trend": 5110.6, "fair_value": 3361.297773, "relative_strength": -22.140578, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.337908, "energy": 14.595862, "activity_lines": [ 5456.666667, 5564.636364, 5451.095238, 5298.060215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4820.0, "volume": 16073, "typical_volume": 26628.2, "trend": 5117.833333, "fair_value": 3372.73624, "relative_strength": -23.891205, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.993166, "energy": 19.017851, "activity_lines": [ 5196.0, 5421.363636, 5406.738095, 5279.311828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4535.0, "volume": 21578, "typical_volume": 23659.9, "trend": 5115.333333, "fair_value": 3381.330322, "relative_strength": -26.872482, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.996319, "energy": 42.137242, "activity_lines": [ 4917.0, 5239.545455, 5335.071429, 5241.709677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4575.0, "volume": 10640, "typical_volume": 22820.25, "trend": 5104.0, "fair_value": 3390.880319, "relative_strength": -21.82681, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.571853, "energy": 56.483601, "activity_lines": [ 4735.333333, 5084.272727, 5269.452381, 5206.849462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }