{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4b07ef4-8ad5-46d7-a7dc-348abbe98f79", "symbol": "PTLC", "name": "PACER TRENDPILOT US LARGE CAP ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.129, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.499, "architecture_energy": 49.958, "architecture_maturity": 32.11, "architecture_confidence": 81.128, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.3, "rotation_up": 56.57, "upward_expansion": 79.6, "deceleration": 56.77, "rotation_down": 22.57, "downward_expansion": 6.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.801333, 58.435091, 57.88579, 57.122555 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 60.28, "trend_reference": 56.428507, "distance_from_trend": 0.068254, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.282456, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198828, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.289814, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071073, "excess_performance": -0.054552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068254, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016809, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.198828, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021401, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011641, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071073, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.320184, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 804679, "relative_activity": 1.386411, "balance": 2.320184, "dry_up": 0.966155, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024236, "annualized_volatility": 0.121092, "from_high_reference": -0.004295, "from_low_reference": 0.172132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.428507, "fair_value_reference": 50.282456, "structural_low": 51.5801, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.009175, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": -0.000459, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.063235, "worst_return": -0.071016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.025173, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.001594, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.087474, "worst_return": -0.06674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.03611, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00356, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.156405, "worst_return": -0.110964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -3.580485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.126629, "energy": 39.536653, "activity_lines": [ 58.156, 58.044364, 57.21296, 56.641915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.63, "volume": 410869, "typical_volume": 570625.4, "trend": 56.220507, "fair_value": 50.040359, "relative_strength": -3.436823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.965395, "energy": 37.701947, "activity_lines": [ 58.003333, 57.980182, 57.34965, 56.735803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.24, "volume": 503045, "typical_volume": 564178.4, "trend": 56.30484, "fair_value": 50.15434, "relative_strength": -3.37755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.413513, "energy": 37.079685, "activity_lines": [ 58.097333, 58.024364, 57.530815, 56.866093 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.28, "volume": 804679, "typical_volume": 580404.3, "trend": 56.428507, "fair_value": 50.282456, "relative_strength": -3.289814, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.499419, "energy": 49.958427, "activity_lines": [ 58.801333, 58.435091, 57.88579, 57.122555 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }